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It will be a hit.

Japan has never been huge on Mario. SMG's launch wasn't far off of other big Mario launches in the past there -- SM64 and Sunshine, for example.  People comparing it to SMG either like to make comparisons that don't make any sense or know nothing about the market.

Wii Fit will probably 750k by the end of CY07 and be well upwards of 2 million by the end of CY08.