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Some earlier games released in this time period, for perspective:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=America&game1=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&reg2=America&game2=Call+of+Duty+4:+Modern+Warfare+-+X360&reg3=America&game3=Call+of+Duty:+World+at+War+-+X360&weeks=11


Obviously Modern Warfare 2 will see higher frontloaded sales than its predecessors, though I'm sure NSMB Wii will do far better than Galaxy, as well. Still, we're probably talking near 5mil in 11 weeks. It'd essentially need to open like Brawl/MK (1mil+ week one), on top of its (expected) large holiday boost.