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koffieboon on 19 October 2007
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TWRoO said:

Your working make no sense

you can't say this; "Without Halo 3, Xbox 360 still outsold (should be out-revenued) PS3 2:1, which means that if PS3 accounted for 9% of total revenue than Xbox 360 without Halo 3 accounts for 18%."

It makes no sense, this is percentages we are talking about, PS3 software accounted for 9% of software revenue with halo 3, If you take Halo out the PS3 percentage will be higher because percentage adds to 100 whatever information is excluded.

If anything, because Halo3 accounts for slightly over half of total revenue itself
(56% in fact) the PS3 percentage of total without revenue should be more than double (up to 20%) with Wii also being more than double (18% up to 40%) which means that 360 had very similar software REVENUE to Wii (both about 40%)

 

here are my workings;
total software revenue- PS3 9%, 360 is 8:1 over PS3 making 360 72%, Wii is 1:4 of 360 meaning Wii 18%....adds up to 99% (allow for innacuracy of ratios)

If you use the 2:1 ratio of 360-Halo:PS3, that means Halo made up 3/4 of all 360 software revenue;
so 72% /4 = 18%.....18% X3 = 56%
That means you have taken 56% of software out of the equation yet still used PS3s 9% of total as a base, which is why you should be multiplying both PS3s and Wiis percentages by 2.3 (100/44% = 2.2727....)

 


About that first part, the article stated: Even without the sales of "Halo 3" the Xbox 360 portfolio outsold the PS3 portfolio 2:1. I have no further comment on that part.

The exact marketshares based on revenue don't need to be calculated, considering they are given in the article. It is 74% for Xbox 360, 17% for Wii and 9% for PS3. 

I never took Halo 3 out of the equation, I just tried to separate total XBox 360 sales in 2 parts, one part Halo 3, the other part all the other titles. And yes, then I got a 56% marketshare for Halo 3 alone, with a total revenue of 225M (also given in the article). Which puts PS3 at (9%/56%)*225M = 36M revenue.

Of course there are some problems with the calculations I made, first one already mentioned by Alvar, I don't know the average retail price. That is also the reason why I used 3 different scenarios there so you can see what different prices do to the total numbers.

The numbers within the article can create problems as well. First of all the ratios give an opportunity for large deviations. For example, the 2:1 ratio between PS3 and XBox 360 without Halo 3 can put Microsoft anywhere from 18-27%. Those percentages do make quite a difference considering they also affect the size of Halo 3 compared to the whole market.

So yes, there are quite a lot of complications, but if you all put them in a way that will favour XBox 360 it still seems like there remains quite a gap between the numbers on the site and the NPD numbers. Maybe ioi's numbers have a tentency to overtrack games at launch (although Halo 3 was the other way around) and both XBox 360 and PS3 had relatively a lot of of new games released. I have no intention to criticize ioi's work, I only started this thread thinking it might be helpful information to try to improve software figures in the future.