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Every day that goes by, a new Halo title will need a lower and lower attach rate to sell 10 million copies.  Halo 3 launched with an attach rate of 60% or something ridiculous.  It's still at about 30%.

By the time Reach launches, there will be somewhere near 40 million 360s out as opposed to Halo 3's launch with 16 million or whatever it was.

 

I'd say the odds are fine that it reaches 10 million or so, provided it's a good game, of course.



Can't we all just get along and play our games in peace?