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It's quite possible that it'll last a lot longer than that, if Sony tries to use it as their main console in developing markets and such. I heard that the PS2 is the only viable console in Brasil, for instance, because of that country's insane 150% tax on foreign electronics, making a PS2 $250, in an already much poorer country.

I can't imagine a $1000 PS3 will be taking off in Brasil any time soon. :-/

Weren't NESs being made as late as 2002 or something crazy? I know games were being released as late as 1995 for that. Looks like the PS2 is going to end up breaking the NES's cockroach-like longevity.