All I can say is Japan is about to get interesting with those big releases coming out over the next 2 months.
But going off things you say I would think sales like this:
Wii Sports Resorts
SW- 300,000
HW- 50,000
Dragon Quest IX
SW- 2.25 million
HW- 200,000
Monster Hunter 3
SW- 650,000
HW- 100,000
I think WSR should have a pretty good following considering how well the first one sold. Should raise hardware a good bit as well as it becomes a new marketing campaign. Monster Hunter 3 should really pump out a good first week number as it's going to be a huge core release for the Wii. Not to mention with the HW bundle, should put in a great week for Wii. WSR will more than likely have better legs, but MH3 may end up being tacked on as one of those "get with the console" kinda things because the series has become so big over there. Similar to what Wii Fit and MK Wii have done recently in the market.
Dragon Quest IX will just be collosal though. It could set the record for the biggest opener in Japanese gaming history which is currently held by Final Fantasy VIII with 2.5 million I believe. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think that has been the largest first week. Either way this will push a ton of DS's and really just cloud anything else that releases. Will be quite a week when this comes out.
