Well pretty solid prediction except they are going to have to show off at least one big holiday title. Last year they even showed off two (Wii Music and Animal Crossing: City Folk).
I mean Wii Sports Resort releases in the summer, Sin and Punishment 2 isn't a big released, nor the remake games. A 15 second trailer of Pikmin 3 wouldn't do, and even if there is a second Wii Fit announced or enhanced version, there is no guarantee it'll come out this holiday season. Not to mention that would be a very uncompetitive holiday lineup, even compared to last year which had 2.
So maybe they'll show Wii Fit 2 or enhanced version off as their big holiday title but you would have to expect they would at least have another big holiday title. Maybe Mario Party 9 or Pikmin 3 as you stated. I know everyone thinks Ninty is not looking out for the core gamer, but they are looking out for the holiday season haha.