The third time´s the charm?Microsoft to win next generation?

[Squilliam]

S.T.A.G.E. said:

Squilliam said:

S.T.A.G.E. said:
Microsoft will have America firmly in their grasp by next year and most likely they'll have hardware that doesn't break down upon launch. I think they will have a far greater chance of winning next gen than any other gen. The more Microsoft seems to learn, the more dangerous they become. I say they and Nintendo will be neck and neck since they both have found their strong points.

I wonder about how Nintendo and Microsoft are going to compete really. The thing is with the Wii, its really got hardware from circa 2002, by 2011 thats almost two whole generations of visual improvements and if a console comes out in say 2011 like the Wii but far far more powerful the graphical improvements would be enough to impress people.

1. Well, the good thing about Nintendo is the depth of their games is all that matters. The graphics really is a non-factor because Nintendos gameplay always shines through (even when they have few games). They know they cannot depend on third parties and their graphics hungry games (thanks to Sony), so lets just hope for a good HD Wii. I think Nintendo gets it that the majority of the casuals will not graduate to the multiple button controller like Sony and MS have said. All they need to do is stay close enough to what the Wii was built on, with a couple of improvements and a love price and you have a winner.

Microsoft does have the strength of Xbox Live, its a community which should give them quite a significant captive audience who will only upgrade to a next generation Xbox console barring unforseen circumstances like it sucking balls. Theres 10-20M people right there who may eventually get an Xbox Evolution. Thats a pretty good base to build off, especially as neither PSN or Wii online has the same community feeling and probably not the same level of loyalty.

2. Microsoft might not get enough of the casuals, however, they can bag the hardcore base which are still hungry for an HD system today (Which are probably the majority of the PS2 fanbase). They've already got America and Xbox Live has over 17 Million users. All Microsoft has to do now is make affordable hardware that is undisputed quality, which no one can argue with. After this gen is over Microsoft will be solidified as a true competitor because it will have multitple quality first party titles, much like Sony and Nintendo. They will have a very good run next gen.

Microsoft does have quite a few options up its sleeve. They have the option of turning the Xbox Evolution into a computer, they have Windows for example. They have some pretty cool interface technologies as well. What they don't have is a reliable 1st party stable to develop cutting edge innovative software for their Nextbox. To mitigate that weakness they have to release early and get developers working on their platform and releasing games before other platforms to give them early momentum. So ideally they will want to release at least one year, preferrably 18m-2years before Nintendo to give themselves and third parties a chance to create some really compelling software.

3. I have an eerie feeling Sony is going to be the weak link next gen, despite the fact that Blu Ray prices will fall. Everyone who cares enough about gaming knows Sony has lost its only connection with gamers, which was primarly gathering all of the third party games with a shovel. Now that Microsoft is playing the same game, they want to act like they are high and moral. Their world will never be the same. Once Digital downloads become big with consoles instead of hard formats, Sony will be forced to leave. Sony will do well next gen, but I believe they will still be in third.

 

1. Well, the good thing about Nintendo is the depth of their games is all that matters. The graphics really is a non-factor because Nintendos gameplay always shines through (even when they have few games). They know they cannot depend on third parties and their graphics hungry games (thanks to Sony), so lets just hope for a good HD Wii. I think Nintendo gets it that the majority of the casuals will not graduate to the multiple button controller like Sony and MS have said. All they need to do is stay close enough to what the Wii was built on, with a couple of improvements and a love price and you have a winner.

Nintendos biggest vulnerability IMO is the fact that they can be blindsided by 3rd party brilliance. Fortunately for them, much of the HD software released this gen didn't have the magic which saw then pummelled by the PS1. They are only one company, and doing it alone against a horde of different competitors is difficult even for the best. The other issue they have is that their Wii owners may not graduate from the Wii. Wii Fit is brilliant, but for someone who owns the Wii for just that program, they have very little reason to upgrade the way I see it.

2. Microsoft might not get enough of the casuals, however, they can bag the hardcore base which are still hungry for an HD system today (Which are probably the majority of the PS2 fanbase). They've already got America and Xbox Live has over 17 Million users. All Microsoft has to do now is make affordable hardware that is undisputed quality, which no one can argue with. After this gen is over Microsoft will be solidified as a true competitor because it will have multitple quality first party titles, much like Sony and Nintendo. They will have a very good run next gen.

If they release first they have a chance to excite the market. This is as much a game of momentum as anything else and once they have that they have the chance to lock in key sections of the market with their Live network and build from there. This is pretty much a similar strategy to Nintendo, its the network effect of multiplayer. If they get a commanding lead here, it won't matter if they don't have the coolest games because people will buy the console their friends have just to play, chat or whatever. People will even advocate their console of choice to a friend just to get them to play online with them.

3. I have an eerie feeling Sony is going to be the weak link next gen, despite the fact that Blu Ray prices will fall. Everyone who cares enough about gaming knows Sony has lost its only connection with gamers, which was primarly gathering all of the third party games with a shovel. Now that Microsoft is playing the same game, they want to act like they are high and moral. Their world will never be the same. Once Digital downloads become big with consoles instead of hard formats, Sony will be forced to leave. Sony will do well next gen, but I believe they will still be in third.

If you look at the games Sony has released thus far, say for the PS2 you can see that really they haven't got a clue as to how to make a game which appeals to a lot of people at once. On a console of over 100 million, the sheer lack of huge selling games is a testament to how badly they have done thus far in making or finding these games. Their performance this generation leaves me wondering if beyond the hardcore gamer they actually know how to make a game which appeals to a lot of people at once. Granted, Microsoft is only a little better here except they make up for it with their wallet.

As far as digital downloads go, I think you're overstating what you perceive as a weakness when infact there is none. Their greatest weakness in transitioning to digital downloads is that with Blu Ray now they cannot offer reasonable download sizes next generation for current generation games. Microsoft on the other hand is perfectly positioned to take advantage of downloadable games on the other hand. I don't think they will be forced to leave, unless they get whipped again. However their greatest challenge is overcoming Xbox Live with the fact that its sucking up the core and hardcore gamers they've set their business up to target.