Nintendo's Wii: Beating the PlayStation 2 a Real Possibility?

[ameratsu]

I doubt wii sales will ever beat the ps2. here is my reasoning.

 

1. Despite the Wii's very impressive hardware performance, i find to a certain extent that 3rd party titles are shunned. Furthermore, casual gamers who bought the wii are not going to go out and buy every new game even if it is fantastic. I'm sure many of them are perfectly content with Wii Sports & Cooking Mama. For this reason there will lots of Wii's out (many collecting dust) but the software attach rates (not including Wii Play) will be relatively poor.

2. The Wii was cracked VERY quickly. We are not talking the disc swapping / cog sliding that was required when the ps2 first was able to play backup games. We are talking no-swap booting of ALL gamecube & wii titles within an extremely short time from the console's release (the focus here being *anyone* can use a no-swap modded console to play backup games, no complicated procedures). In contrast, it took a few years for the ps2 to get no-swap modchips, and the first ones were expensive and absurdly complicated to install. It took 3+ years to be able to buy a cheap ps2 modchip with a low wire count. My main point here is that as Wii popularity grows and the install base grows, the demand for modchips will stay very steady, and since it is already going on and will be for the remainder of the life of the console, it has the potential hinder Wii software sales.

3. The United States is expected to slide into a recession in the near future. With the declining value of the US dollar and stagnating wages, people will find that everyday necessities cost more. The first thing reduced or cut out (depending on severity) of people's lives given a recession is discretionary spending. Given that the US is a sustantial purchaser of all consumer electronics, to say that the Wii will clear over 100 million at this point in time is uncertain at best.

there are other points i'd bring up, but these 3 seem like the most relevant.

cheers