Nintendo's Wii: Beating the PlayStation 2 a Real Possibility?

[Final-Fan]

facher83 said:

Final-Fan said:
I think that you are heavily overestimating the amount of failed PS2s. From what I understand, the number of failures was (unlike the 360) unfortunately high but still within industry standards. Let's say 3-5%. (That's 1 in every 20, certainly enough to make for a lot of complaints!) And this is NOT 3-5% of 120 million; it's 3-5% of the early-model PS2s -- maybe the first 10-20 million. 5% of 20 million = 1 million.

120 million sold becomes 119 million sold OH NOES!~

And do you honestly think the Wii is likely to get smaller? Nintendo has a long history of updating their handhelds and not their main consoles; I expect this trend to continue.

Updating their handhelds means they update hardware regardless. You seem to state this as a means to suggest Wii will not be updated, but I can only see that as being for updating. Management at Nintendo has been quite a bit different since N64/GameCube.

Nintendo has a new president since the GCN release. Yes, I can see that trend changing.

My question would be, where has Sony released factual evidence on how many units fail? If we go by my personal experience, 2 of my 3 have died, but beyond warranty. Not to mention, Sony had a lawsuit against them forcing them to replace units. That's a nice record to have.

By the way , 5% of 120 million is 6 million, not 1.. I honestly see the figure more like 40% replacement when you consider double-buys, people who bought a slim that already have an original, actual replacements due to failures, etc. My figure, 40% (pulled out of the air just as credible as yours) puts PS2 at actual sales of 72 million. This stat would compare to NES life time sales.

You have a point that PS2s that failed after 3 or 4 years would not have raised a big stink but still added to the sales total. However, I think it's very unlikely that a large percentage of people who had still-functional PS2s would have said, "whoops, time to upgrade!" when the PStwo came out.

And I resent the accusation that I pulled my numbers totally out of my ass, as you so obviously did yours -- especially when you've just proven that you didn't actually read my post. You could have questioned my premises, but you didn't. You just ignored my logic.

And speaking of unfounded assumptions, why do you believe that 'new management = new Wii'? There is no reason to believe that that you have shared with the rest of us, other than your theory regarding handhelds, and you did nothing to rebut my counterargument there.