PS3 Is Undertracked?(Sony shipments out)

[Lafiel]

@ mesoteto )

your characterization of the situation is flawed and biased

the fact is, that there is a 2 mln gap between real shipments and the sales VGC tracked and there are 2 main factors that could lead to it

1) undertracking - sales might be higher, which is why stores have ordered more

2) channelstuffing - although many people see this as an active task it really is passive, Sony can for example increase the inventory stores have by reducing prices for high quantity orders, stores decide themselves whether or not they go for it

certain arguments speak for 2)
- bad economic situation
- fierce competition with much more affordable prices
- YoY decline of sales, which likely hasn't been anticipated, when the orders where made
- many tracking services in line with VGC numbers

and certain arguments speak for 1)
- last quarter shipment numbers were already higher than expected (based on VGC numbers) and back then it already was tributed to high inventory levels, so why would shops over order so much, when they already had plenty of stock?.. shop keepers aren't stupid, you know
- some big tracking services didn't release their numbers yet and there could be quite a difference to VGC
- in many regions there is no good tracking services so the numbers of VGC can't be validated


As of now the "channelstuffing"-side seems to have the better arguments, but if the next quarter shipments aren't considerably smaller than last year (2.33 mln) their reasoning was likely false (no matter how true/good it sounded).


I'd personally be more pleased if "undertracking" was true, as I want the videogaming device of my choice to sell well (and I don't feel personally attached to VGC like some people of the "channelstuffing"-side) , but ofcourse if the next quarter shows shipments had a sharp decline YoY, then I'd acknowlegde, that the "channelstuffing" hypothesis in this case was true, while a mild decline or an increase will sway me to the "undertracking" side.