First day sales in Japan (1/22) - Fragile, Left 4 Dead, Zill O'll

[outlawauron]

shams said:

Louie said:

shams said:
Here we go again :P

50% of total shipment on day#1 is NOT bad. Blame the retailers more units were not ordered. If they get close to 100% shipment sellouts, the games are definite successes.

 

*cries* oh no, not you as well shams! A sellout of the first shipment doesn't mean the game was a success. If Namco projected 500k units the game won't be a success even if a second shipment of 100k unit sells out as well.

The publishers are the ones talking to the retailers. They know how many units retailers will order. If they order 100k, they will NOT have "expectations" for 500k lifetime sales.

If they do, its up to the publisher to convince the retailer to take more units - cheaper per-unit price, or some other deal.

...

Obviously, sell-through rate does not determine success/failure on its own (ship 1 unit, sell 1 unit...). But you can't expect the title to sell more units than its shipment figure in the first week (unless a second shipment comes in).

From the look of it, the retailer order figures were pretty close to right (based on sales).

...

Just because its an RPG, doesn't mean its going to "sell well" in Japan. Its a new IP, and the Wii has had less RPG love than the other consoles. The RPG market is becoming rather segmented - and you need a big name to sell heaps of units.

So you are saying that developers know their game will flop and lose money before they release it?