Alright, let's handle these in order:
1. Digital downloads will not eliminate the need for discs anytime soon.
I actually agree with this point, it will be a long time before we go to strictly "download only" market. That said Bluray is currently facing two very tuff apponents, digital downloads and dvd. Bluray will never be able to become as dominate as DVD's were, that is not to say it won't be successful, because it it up againt stronger and more compitition then DVD's ever were.
2. Having one clear standard is a big advantage.
This is as big of an advantage as it is a dissadvantage. Have one formate means less people waiting on the fence, but it also means that there is less insentive to drop prices to beat the compitition. When HD DVD was still competing, prices were falling like crazy. Once HD DVD droped out, prices have stablized and will fall much more slowly. And right now, price is the determianing factor as to whether Bluray will succed.
3. Blu-ray isn't going to be replaced by another disc format anytime soon.
I would worry less about what could replace it and more about if it will ever replace DVD's.
4. Prices for large-screen HDTVs will continue to drop.
True, and this should help Bluray adoption, but Bluray players are not going to go 1:1 with HD TV's. I have had an HDTV for over a year now and I still don't have a bluray player.
5. Prices for Blu-ray players will continue to drop.
"By this time next year, there will be several sub-$100 Blu-ray players on the market. " Although I hope this is true, you cannot garentee this. And it will have to drop below $100 befor it will become mass market freindly.
6. Prices for Blu-ray discs will drop to near DVD price levels.
*see points 2 & 6. These points apply to the discs as well. And the price of the discs have been falling even more slowly then the players.
7. Sony will sell lots of PlayStation 3 game consoles.
Not without a price drop. And because of Sony's fiscal troubles, that will not happen in 2009.
8. Sony can't afford to have Blu-ray fail.
Although I agree with this to some extent, right now Sony doesn't have the fiscal muscle to do anything about it.
9. Sony and its partners will figure out a way to have Blu-ray resonate with the public.
This is based more more on opion and hope then fact. Sony and partners already know how to make Bluray resonate with the public, drop the prices for both players and discs to near DVD levels. But right now they are more worried about profit margins then market share. (Doen't this sound fimilar for Sony)
