Is this game over for Sony?

[Erik Aston]

Various responces, including thoughts covered by others...

The attach rate has to do with the amount of good games. Casual or not, it is about the amount and you have described why having such a large number of games leads to better attach rate.

Righto. I'm not going to reread the thread totally, but I think someone was implying that "casuals" wouldn't buy as many games.

It comes down to games but the numbers will show that the PS follower have been open to titles. Most PS2 games did not need to sell a million + to make a profit. Quite a few games were low budget and turned a profit.. like disgaea. Alot of games didn't need to sell a million but obviously they sold enough to keep these companies happy.

Allright, but you're talking about PS2 so far. The business plan behind PS2 and that behind PS3 are totally different.

If you look at the list of games that are in production for the PS3 you will notice that quite a large number of them would not be considered large dev companies.

And I think some of these companies may end up in trouble, unless they got a major liscense or IP.

After being so long winded I am just saying is that there is no real indication of the Wii taking the industry by storm because the advantages that it provides for the devs are the same as the GC offered.

The advantages are the same as GC? Here's a couple advantages I can think of that GC didn't have. 1. Devs are used to working on GC which Wii is based on, destroying any "learning curve", and the system has a shorter expected development cycle than its competitors regardless of the learning curve. 2. Nintendo are encouraging the making of "casual" games, which further shortens the development cycle, and de-emphasizes the arms race that has formed within established genres like RPGs, FPSs, or third-person sandbox type games. 3. Wii promises to sell MUCH better than GC in Japan and Europe.

The business plan revolves around the Wiimote. If you take away the Wiimote, then you basically have a Gamecube with online play. Less-than-stellar online play, at that. The Wii without the Wiimote would be a weaker PS3 and 360 just as the Gamecube was a weaker PS2 and Xbox. Developers have even criticized the Wii for its substandard hardware and online service, and that's what these devs would have to work with should the Wiimote novelty wear off.

The Wiimote is the RESULT of the approach Nintendo took as a company. The RESULT of their business plan. Not the other way around. Take away the Wiimote, and you probably have a different revolutionary control technique, or another radical differentiating feature, since it was Nintendo's goal of differentiation and eventual disruption which led to the invention of the Wiimote. They would still have a budget console, an interface designed around user-experience, an online store focused on amassing the most content, a system architecture with minimal learning curve, would be relying on games with the same purpose as Wii Sports and Cooking Mama, etc etc etc... Nintendo do need to get some parts of their online squared away (I'm not surprised with a company like Ninty that the store was the one element perfectly ready for launch...)

I'm not saying that the DS would have been as wildly popular without the stylus, but it would have still been successful.

Again, the stylus, as well as the voice recognition and the "casual online" aspect of DS (by which I mean the ability to "visit" a friend's game), were the result of the business approach Nintendo took. Not all the key software they have is enabled by the stylus etc., but even some of that might not have existed without the business plan.

1) Animal Crossing is a Nintendo flagship titles that was established back on the N64. 2) New Super Mario Brothers has outsold Brain Age by almost 2-1. 3) Mario Kart DS has also outsold Brain Age.

1. AC was established on N64, but established as a flagship on DS. In many ways, it was just a game which fit into the philosophy of DS and Wii, even before those systems were in development. With the ability to make and trade your home deco, customize Miis, visit your friend's houses any time day or night through WC24, get updates on the game regardless of if you're playing it, etc, it could continue to be a killer app on Wii. 2 & 3 = Wrong & wrong. Check your numbers. For reference, I use this site called "vgcharts.org" for all my numbers. Maybe you've heard of it. I'll also note that NSMB was even a game which was somewhat revolutionary. Yes, we've seen it before, but not a new one in 15 years, and making that game broke the thought process which says games evolve linearly and audiences move on to new types of titles. Basically, they made a game marketed at FORMER gamers more than anyone else, and it became a massive hit... It fits in perfectly with their new strategy, even though its old gameplay. And now it could hit 10 million shipments this year.

Mh ... Do you know Erik, your writing mode is similar ( for style and ideas ) to Sean's ( but I'm not an expert of English ...) Are you Sean ?

No. I just read his articles, and followed it up by reading up on Blue Ocean strategy. His thoughts were confirmed by a variety of sources, including the Motley Fool and Walt Mossberg. I also learned a lot from the Iwata asks interviews.

Sony can afford to take another initial manufacturing loss, it will be made up in licensing PS3 will drop its price, Sony already hinted at it and will follow though once some of the chips+blue-ray diodes are cheaper which will most likely be around may/june. All backward compatability issues will also be resolved with upcoming firmware releases. The last 2 generations have been won by PLAYSTATION, Even Wii users will by one after the novelty wears off and amazing eye-candy and fun titles like GTA, god of war and shadow of the colossus and original IP's come out this year and the next.

Even a title like GTA only has a draw of about 15-16 million at most, and most of that from the west, where 360 is a viable option. So even a massive franchise like that now has little draw in the grand scheme of things, in comparison to the volume of games. GTA, FF, MGS, GT etc could become like Mario, Zelda, Donkey Kong and MarioKart etc were on N64. Massively popular, seemingly the most important games entering the generation, but the superior business plan still won out.