I believe the global financial crisis 2008-09 has ended the PS3's chances of coming second this generation. The last six months since July 2008 when the financial crisis was declared, Sony and PS3 and many other companies have been struggling due to the credit crunch. Sony can ill afford to cut price of PS3 in the near future. To do so could financially cripple Sony. It would not surprise me if Sony did not cut the price of PS3 during 2009 and just focus on trying to generate some profits.
Any PS3 price cut would wipe out the profits made on PS3 and Sony will be back in a loss making position in order trying to build its market share of this generation. Currently every PS3 sold generates a $50 loss for Sony. By August when the next revision on PS3 has been made, the cost of PS3 should be much lower and I expect a $50 to $100 profit could be made on every PS3 sold if the price is unchanged. A $100 price cut made by Sony post August 2009 would result in the PS3 being in an either $50 loss position or break even at best case scenario. The exchange rates will also have an impact on HD TV sales where HDTVs price could be increased. Expensive HDTVs are generally needed to get the benefits of PS3 and Blu-Ray.
MS would do a price cut themselves on the three SKU's just before Xmas to cash in on the pre-Xmas 2009 sales blitz. MS should get XBox 360 sales to match PS3 sales for 2009 or sell more than PS3 due to Xbox 360 offering the same experience at half the price of PS3. 90% of the games on Xbox 360 are on the PS3. Xbox 360 has some good exclusives of its own which are on par with the PS3 exclusives IMO. A Slimline Xbox 360 is expected to be released end of 2009 marking the fourth year anniversaey of XBox 360's launch and the start of the XBox 360's 5th year.
Financial markets fall once every 7 years and then recover. Financial markets are cyclical, rise and fall continuously over time.
*These are my predictions contained here, not official.
BTW: The PS3 has a very slim chance of finishing second it would take a miraculous comeback and assuming it sells longer than XBox 360.
