HD Penetration.

[Steve 3.2]

(sigh) So much ignorance, so little time... First and foremost, Digital TV does not equal HDTV. The two terms are not interchangeable. So let's start with Digital TV: Digital TV Most Standard Definition (SD) TVs sold these days include a digital tuner. Here's one at Best Buy if you need one: Cheap SD Digital TV So most of the SD TVs sold today will continue to work well past 2009. They'll just be displaying a picture that is 480i. Besides new TVs, about 85% of American households get cable television today. I don't need a converter to watch cable TV today, and unless a cable provider chooses to terminate analog signals I will not need a converter in 2009. If a cable operator chooses to do that, they will probably provide a converter or risk some losing customers. As noted before, for the small minority who wants a digital converter for an older TV will be able to get a rebate from the government. So the turning off of over-the-air analog broadcasts is pretty moot for most Americans. HD TV Like millions of Americans, I have an older TV and refuse to get a new one at this time. My primary reason is the initial and ongoing costs for going high def. (Not only do you have to pay a pretty penny to get an HD TV, but it also costs more to get the digital cable with those pretty looking channels.) I also have a concern regarding the quality and longevity of the units and know that all of the options out there have some issues to still be worked out. (Plasma takes too much electricity, LCD is still a bit slow and dark though the brand new units are getting much better, and DSP may require expensive light bulb changes.) And I don't watch that much television anymore. All of the shows I do watch I download from the internet for viewing on my PC or laptop. (I keep a bucket next to them in case I feel the need to hurl due to the image quality. ) So I'm not getting one... yet. I'm sure adoption will continue to be high, but like all things it will slow down as you cross over the half way point. So let's talk about all these people taking the plunge and buying a TV that is HD capable. One of the biggest problems with your logic is the assumption that people who buy HD TVs must want HD programming (or an console that outputs an HD signal). This is like saying those who buy SUVs want to drive off-road. Like the SUV owners, people are looking for a big TV and all of the ones are the market these days happen to be high def. So there's this misconception that if you're in the market for a large, flashy flat panel TV, you must want it because it's HD. (Vice versa though, if you buy a console for HD, you better be ready to pony up the bucks for an HD TV, otherwise it's not going to look anywhere near as nice as those screen shots on the back of the box.) Conclusion Most American homes have two or more TVs and I doubt that people are replacing all of their units when upgrading. So HD TV penetration rates my continue to increase quite well over the next couple of years, the majority of TVs out there will continue to be SD sets. You're welcome to look at these numbers and think that they're a great sign for the systems with HD output, but I don't think there's going to be the same correlation between HD TV adoption and HD Video Games adoption. Here's a great resource on Digital TV and HD TV: http://www.hdtvinfoport.com/Digital-TV.html