PS3 stills has a chance for 2nd place?

[freedquaker]

Edited:

I second my previous opinion about what MAY and WILL happen...

- PS3 WILL sell more than 2008 in 2009.
- PS3 MAY sell more than 360 in 2009 (or vice versa). So the gap MAY close (depending on the price points and games lineup).
- PS3 WILL not sell more than wii (So the gap with Wii will increase).
- WII and 360 may sell more than 2008 in 2009. However, the chances that 360 will sell more (than 2008) is greater than Wii selling more.

- Next Generation consoles WILL not be released untill at least one year after both hardware and software sales decrease compared to previous year. This is a "necessary", not a "sufficient" condition. Let me explain.

With this logic, we know that no next gen console will be released in 2010 because the hardware and software sales for all consoles have increased in 2008. If for example, both hardware and software sales of 360 decrease in 2009, we can expect the next gen 360 in 2011 as earliest. We wont see a PS4 till 2012 at least since we expect PS3 sales to be certainly higher than 2008. (So the sales may decrease only in 2010 and we need another year). As I said this is not a sufficient condition though cos Next Wii will probably wont hit so soon because its already the market leader and highly profitable both on hardware and software. It may need more than one consequtive year for a nextgen wii unless the nextgen wii is fully compatible with the current wii and will not disrupt the current wii market.