Prediction: PS3 will sell 100 mln. by the end of 2012

[starcraft]

MikeB said:
@ starcraft

Prominent reasons include games being produced for consoles with large userbases. The PS3 having the smallest userbase ironically means it's userbase is the least likely to grow.

All 3rd party 360 top 25 best sellers are also on the PS3. The PS3 user base is already sizeable at nearly 20 million users, so this trend is IMO likely to continue. The PS3 user base is now more relevant than ever.

The PS3 line-up last year saw more and better quality exclusives. This trend seems to be continuing for this year as well.

Then there is the fact that (assuming the Wii sorts its supply issues) the PS3 will ALWAYS be more expensive than the other consoles.

Yes, the PS3 will always stay more expensive to produce than a 360 or a Wii (like a low spec PC is cheaper to make than a high spec PC). But as price comes down more and more, the difference in retail pricing becomes less and less of a crucial factor.

I mean a 100 dollar 360 vs a 200 dollar PS3 is less of an issue for the PS3 than a 200 dollar 360 vs 400 dollar PS3. Games for both systems are similarly expensive (and the 360 has a lot of hidden costs, my Nintendo DS has Wi-Fi, on the 360 you pay 60 Euro just for such a simple feature, for the price of a 120 GB 360 harddrive you can buy a 320 GB harddrive on the PS3, pay extra on the 360 to play online, etc also the 360 is not Blu-Ray compatible for the best quality HD movie playback and is lower specced for games (default harddrive, Blu-Ray and the Cell).

There is something that really confuses me about you Mike.  You're clearly an intelligent guy.  So why, in the face of all evidence, trends and observable facts, do you continue to argue that raw computing power that amounts to only a small advantage over the Xbox 360 will result in a sales explosion the likes of which has never been seen in the gaming industry?

Why is the one factor that has had no substantial impact on either of the last two generations the one that convinces you that the console with the least going for it as we move forward will suddenly lead to a cataclysmic (for the Wii and Xbox 360) comeback for the PS3?