Is this game over for Sony?

[prod]

I'd like to start off by saying, Erik, I think you're awesome. It's so refreshing to see that at least someone out there in the gaming world has a sense of business. Honestly, it's the sole reason I even registered for this site. Now to everyone else posting about the PS3 and 360's greatness and Nintendo's lack in the hardcore market. Its all numbers people. Hardcore gamers really mean very little beyond as Erik points out, the initial launch. I'm gonna throw some theoretical numbers at you to try to put you in the shoes of a low-level developer. First, let's take the number of 120 million as the number of "gamers" in this world. The Earth has a population of 6 billion. Lets say only 3 billion have the requirements to buy a console (electricity, a TV, money) Scratch that, lets make it two billion. Lets take the MS and Sony strategies; they are fighting for a piece of the 120 million gamers in the world. But what Nintendo has learned is that there is a much greater market in the world, an untapped one of 2 billion (our number). If Nintendo markets to that group and sells only to 1% of it, they've sold the system to 20 million people. Of the 2 billion potential customers, "gamers" make up 6% of the population. The nice thing about selling to a broader audience is that things don't have to be PERFECT for you to achieve success. So lets be a lowly developer now... You have $25 million to use. You could with that, make one game huge game for the PS3 or 360, but if it doesn't do well, you could end up filing for bankruptcy and that would just spoil your day. Now say you take that money and make 2 or 3 games for the Wii. @ or 3 average games. They wouldn't have to sell nearly as well and if the Wii has a broader audience and broader reach, you would be just that much more likely to recoup your costs and even make a profit. So while you may not make $50 million or more that some huge titles make, you might also not end up several million in the hole and that would make your investors very happy. What you all need to understand is that most of the titles sold for the PS2 and other systems does not come from million sellers, but from games that sell 500k or less. That means that selling more takes a lot of work. To make a huge game and then have it make profits for you, or even break even sometimes, takes perfection and a lot of effort. Where as a system like the Wii allows for developers to make cheaper games that we might consider mediocre and yet the developer would still see a profit. Hardcore gamers are hard to sell to, the general public is not. There is less risk in a system like the Wii than in the others. I'm a huge PC gamer and I remember when I first realized how unimportant Hardcore gamers really are. It was about a year after Half-Life (the first one) first came out.. A bunch of companies and even magazines started to notice that here was this super awesome game, yet Deer Hunter and Barbie had done better. Games that we would never even call games, which cost almost nothing to make and sold with a lower overall cost and much greater profits. The sun is rising and I havent slept yet so you'll have to forgive me if my argument starts to lose cohesion. My point is very simple. Everyone in here keeps talking about the hardcore gamers. Erik is right, there is a bigger market out there. You may not want to hear it, but hardcore gamers aren't the end all, be all of the industry and Nintendo has realized this. The demographic with the highest overall spending also happens to be one of the largest demographics in the western world, that is the "12-18 year old teenage girl." This is not a fact you'll find on this site, you'd have to go outside, but go to any business site or economic site and you'll see that if you have something to sell, they're the demographic to sell to. My brain is mush and so I'm done. I don't plan on replying any further, I think all the arguing is pointless. I think Erik has made his point as have I and I think all of you have as well. All we can do now is wait about 3 years and see. I think Erik and myself will be proven right. Oh, I almost forgot, development is far easier for the Wii than the ps3 or 360. Here's why: Consoles generally have a 3 year learning curve for developers. The Wii is essentially a Gamecube thats twice as powerful. Programming for it remains essentially the same. Also some of you have mentioned possible problems with programming for the remote, but part of the devkit is software that handles all signals from the remote and gives developers data that they can easily used, so they essentially don't have to code anything for the remote to work. P.S. Erik, you're really awesome. Again, I'm so glad someone has an understanding of business. I'd totally hang out with you, lol. You seem the most interesting person here. P.P.S. The hell is wrong with most of ya'll's typing. I had some serious problems simply decoding what you were saying in your arguments. *recalls a particular line from Pulp Fiction.* Peace out ya'll