@mrstickball: I think it may well become true that the Wii will have a shorter life than PS and PS2, though you don't give a cause for your proclaimed Nintendo Law of falling console sales, so the Wii may also turn out to have Sony-like legs after all. I think Sony-like longevity is based on the ability to a) tap different demographics and b) different international markets (from US and Japan to Western Europe and Australia to Eastern Europe and Latin America...) over a system's life, and c) manage rich 3rd party support. What I do think is flawed is your assumption that Wii sales within a given year are mostly determined by supply issues. This is just not the reality of our markets and the computer industry. Sales potential is mostly determined by how much you can attract costumer interest. With some 6 months to prepare a big company like Nintendo could order from the factories any amount of systems for the Holiday season they think they can sell, be it 100k, 1 million, or 10 million. Just look at the iPod. Apple changed their whole lineup for Holidays '06, with 1 upgrade and 2 completely new designs, while old designs were discontinued. Yet they managed to produce and sell 21 million units within the Holiday quarter, a 50% increase over 1 year ago. If demand is there, Nintendo could not only ramp up to 1,1 million units/month in April, but further to 1,5 million in July and 1,9 million in October - and be at 20 million units sold by the end of the year. The real issues about planning production are not how much you can produce but how much you actually need and how fast you can bring the price down.
Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.
