Why the Wii Won't sell 80m+

[nintendo_fanboy]

mrstickball said: Also, if anyone looked at the chart I put for discussion: The chart I gave is for the 4th through 7th Christmas + next January for the PS1, PS2, Xbox and N64. For the Wii, this would be 2009 through 2011. I made the chart to show how critical those years are. For the Wii, the issue is, that it *could* (and Im only saying could, not will, or won't) be the years that the Wii starts to lower in popularity, or a Wii 2 is launched. For the PS2, those 3 years were Dec 2003 through Jan 2006 - It sold MORE than 50% of it's LTD in that time period. For the PS1, those 3 years were Dec 1998 through Jan 2001 - It sold MORE than 50% of it's LTD in that time period. For the N64, those 3 years were Dec 1999 through Jan 2002 - It sold LESS than 30% of it's LTD in that time period. For the Xbox, those 3 years were Dec 2004 through Jan 2007 - It sold LESS than 30% of it's LTD in that time period. Whats the point of this? There is a 10 million unit gap between the PS1/2 and the N64/Xbox because of it's December #4 through January #7. There is an inherant relationship between a companies ability to both make and sell systems during that time period that either will make or break a company.

I think this chart is very important but you have to interprete it completely different. The reason why ps 1/2 sold so much in their years 4-7 and n64/xbox sold so poor is to find in the previous years. I guess after two or three years in a console-generation-lifecycle, the winner becomes clear, and after that, the most third party resources are moved to this console and it starts to sell really well. The sales in the late years are not dependent on the company producing the console, but on the sales of the console in its first years. In my opinion, you are also mixing up this point if you say that nintendo consoles don't sell well after the next generation is launched. the reason why n64 and gc stopped selling after the launch of gc/wii was that nintendo gave them up already a year before. i mean, who would do different? if you were nintendo, would you still release games for the gamecube right now? of course not, because it is a dead console and it already was before wii launched. but if you have a console with a userbase like ps2 (or gba, which is a good example for what i'm trying to say altough it's a handheld and not a console) you can still make profit by releasing games for it, and, what is even more important, third parties can make profit too. I hope you understand what i'm trying to say, I think i've written it a bit difficult... there are a few other points where I slightly disagree, but they have already been mentioned by other persons. In general, your post is a very good read and it contains some important observations.