I don't know how people still don't seem to get it. To me, I it seems fairly obvious that there's plenty of potential for Nintendo to boost supply. Most of what could be said on the subject already has, but I'd still like to add my own personal take, on the situation, anyways.
Production is up, from earlier this year and Foxconn is already preparing to increase production even more. Companies don't increase production, just to turn around and lower it, immediately afterwards. That alone would be enough for the Wii to sell better next year. The Wii has been trending from launch, 5 mil a year better than the DS, which is going to sell at least 32 mil this year. With the release of DSi and expanding to new regions, the DS will likely sell better next year. Since, the Wii is still in its 1st phase and hasn't pulled off any of the same tactics as the DS (price cut, bundling, new colors, model redesign), I'd expect the Wii to peak higher or at least close to the DS.
With supply as high as it is and the shelf life still managing to be extremely short, it seems clear that demand has in fact increased significantly. The shelf life of the Wii is far from being close to any other system, including the DS. I'm not even sure what the OP means, when he says "no shortages this year". It certainly had shortages at the beginning of the year and during the holidays, still wasn't continuously stocked.
If you're looking for a sign of when the Wii is going to peak, look at it's perhipials. Wii Fit is definitely having major shortages and will be even more popular once, there is more sw that supports it. I'm sure new games supporting Wii Speak and DSi interaction will help, too. M+ hasn't even come out, let alone had major support and AI, the company that designs dev tools for Wii's peripherals, is working on something new for the Wii.
There's just no way sales couldn't be bigger in 09. Once, it reaches past 50% marketshare and it becomes well known that, Nintendo officially owns this gen, consumers focus will shift mostly to the Wii. Leading consoles usually peak during their 3rd year, in evolutionary cycles and in their 4th year, during revolutionary cycles, but with the market expanding as rapidly as it is, who can't say where the Wii's peak is?
@reask: Just to sum everthing up, I think you might need to reevaluate your analysis, aNYWAY.
@arsenicazure: The 360 did get a boost from it's price cut, but it didn't really phase Nintendo. All that really proves, is that once a console is the IN console, the other consoles cutting their prices, has a minor effect, long term. Once consumers' interest begins to wan, the longer a company waits, the less impact a price reduction will have. Sony already needed to cut it's price, but couldn't, due to their financial situation and they've already stated that, they're focusing more on their profit margin, than on marketshare, at the moment.
As far as game list go, I think the HD systems wil be close to par with where they already are, while Ninty will be more competitive, not that it really matters a whole lot, in the sales department. I wouldn't be surprised, if by the end of 2010, things became a little 1 sided, in Nintendo's favor.
