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You make some good points. And as I have said many times, I simply refuse to predict what will happen I think there are so many variables this generation that I can't possibly figure anything out. But regardless I'll throw some points out there: your discussion focuses mainly on production. While Nintendo is not Sony, I imagine if Sony can make 125+ Million consoles where there is a demand, then Nintendo could too(or at least make within 40 million of that figure). Granted Sony is a much bigger company, but it is also a company that has to produce many other devices. Secondly, the demand, I think you have a strong point about the graphics, yet the graphics may be the reason Nintendo does score 80+ Million. How you ask? Well at 250 bucks at launch Nintendo could essientally in three years have a 150 dollar console, so cheap that many people even with ps3s and 360s will probably just get one anyway. Plus the biggest factor, and one that I believe reaches the heart of the ps1 and ps2 success is new markets. Sony was a big success, because they changed alot of peoples minds about video games. They sort of said, hey your twenty, your thirty, well it's still cool to play video games. It got alot of older people playing, revealing a mature side to gaming. That new market exploded for them. Now the market is bigger then ever, and Nintendo is set to expand it even further for people of any age or sex. I can't believe how many girls own the DS, and who are now interersted in the Wii, I also can't believe how many people who never liked games are who are older are into the Wii. For alot of these people they probably don't care about graphics so much, they want a cheap fun little system for stuff like Big Brain Acadamy, Wii Sports/health and stuff. There are so many marketing options for Nintendo here that it could score amazing sales figures.( I can see this being marketed as an all around practical machine, check the weather/news do a work out with Wii Health Post a message for your kids for later, and go to work.) With that said, I simply paint a possiblity. I think your points are valid, and I still think Nintendo needs another 18 months to prove it has any 80 million sales potential. But another big problem is that this generation has three very strong consoles, and two very strong handhelds, despite the growing market, the competition should not be underestimated. And I think this may very well be the first generation where no one scores above 60 million(with the exception of the DS).