Harrison: New Generation Will Never Buy Physical Media

[Comrade Tovya]

C8 said:

Comrade Tovya said:
I actually said the same thing here in the forum a week ago. I don't think it will happen with the next console generation though, I think it will happen the one after that. I think solid state flash media is the next step in the evolution of games... and then during that time period and after, the conversion to a soft-copy only.

 

Games will never be sold in any quantity on solid state flash media.  For starters, that's basically stepping backwards to cartridges - except flash memory is even more expensive to make than cartriges were (and is overkill since it's read/write - and you don't need read/write for games - maybe some space for updates, but the console itself can hold those).  CDs/DVDs/and even BluRay are immensely cheaper to produce than flash media.

Super Black Friday deal: 8GB pen drive for $14

Normal cost for DVD replication: well under 10 cents per disc

I agree that the next round of consoles will probably not be "download media only" - but they will likely be the first generation where almost all games are available for download (we're starting down that path now - with Sony even offering some current-generation full retail titles in download form - and obviously plenty of smaller games and older games available for download on all platforms.)

I wouldn't be suprised though if one or more of the console makers offered a version of their console with no optical drive - because it will likely be unnecessary for many customers - while a premium version will include some optical drive for those who don't have a fast net connection and/or want to play their legacy physical media movies.

 

I disagree.  Yes, solid state is too expensive right now, but Blu-ray discs are super expensive right now as well.

Over the course of the next 10 years though, both media forms will come down drastically.  Standard speed flash memory only costs around .50 a gig to manufacturer right now, and will drastically drop as time goes on.

I would hardly call an object spinning on a mechanical wheel "progressive".  HDD and disc based media will die well before solid state will. Mechanical parts in an electronic device are almost always the first to die.

But I do agree that downloadable media is the future, and largely appearing to be the present as well.  I can't wait until it's the norm.