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atma998 said:

You're right GTAIV was released on 2 consoles while GT5 will be release exclusively on a console with the lowest userbaser (PS3). Halo 3 hits the 8 Mil mark (and it's unsure about hitting the 10 Mil mark) on a console with a larger userbase than PS3. There is no chance GT5 will ever pass the 10 Mil mark.

GTA IV released on a userbase of just over 29.5mil. Assuming GT5 releases 2010, the PS3's userbase will be bigger - I'm thinking 33mil at the very least. If it releases near the end of the year, 40mil+ is possible.