i know ps2 and original xbox owners mean something but i dont think you can look at it like that.. just because someone had a ps2 doesnt mean they are going to get a ps3... look at me for instance i never even had an xbox but i bought a 360...but once again i know people wanna upgrade i just dont think the people who upgrade are the whole equation of buyers or potential buyers but of course they are apart of it.. agree? superchunk?
I agree with you in the long term. However, I would argue that in the initial launch time frame a far higher percentage of buyers of one system are buying it because the owned the previous system. I would bet that more than 90% of 360 owners purchased the xbox. The only exception to this is the Wii, which is proven in that it has been out for over 4 months with decent shipments (1m+ per month) and still sold out worldwide. In these first 6mos I would say that the growth could be directly linked to the predecessor's userbase. N64 did so well in the beginning due to SNES, even though it had what 4 launch games? PS3 I still argue should be doing much better. It should be on par with the Wii solely due to its 120m+ userbase of the ps2. There shoudl be atleast 20m people worldwide ready to buy. But, 5 months later for NA and Japan we see barely 2m. Only 500,000 units moved on launch day in EU. I will see this weekend. If it sells out of the 1m, then maybe Sony could be considered doing good so far.