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2000 is closest.

Obama should win all of the Gore states, and I expect he'll pick up two to three of the following eight:

Colorado, New Hampshire, Virginia, Ohio, Misouri, Florida, Indiana, Nevada

Personally, I think it goes:

Obama states = Gore states + NH + Colorado

 

That would be ~273 electoal votes.

 

Barr could flip Montana, Alaska (heh Palin or not), Colorado, maybe a few others to Obama if he gets 3%+ in those libertarian areas. Clinton won in 92' because of Perot's help in places like Montana, Louisiana, Georgia, etc.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu