Is the Wii doomed?

[mkozlows]

Okay, that seems like a ridiculous question in light of the NPD numbers, but it's actually the NPD numbers that make me ask. Because the striking thing to me wasn't how well the Wii sold -- anyone who's tried to buy one knew they'd sell well -- it's how badly third-party Wii software sold compared to first-party software. So here are a few things that make me wonder about the Wii: 1. The PS3 and 360 are approximately similar hardware, such that a game developed for one of systems is easily ported to the other. But the Wii isn't like that; a game developed for the Wii can't be trivially ported from the PS3/360 version (note that no Wii ports of next-gen-only titles exist right now, for instance). So while the sales of the PS3 and 360 almost don't matter, from the perspective of a third-party publisher -- the PS3 could have 15% of the market, and publishers would do a port from the 360 version, because it doesn't take many sales to justify such a straight port -- the Wii's sales do matter, because a port/rewrite will take a lot more time, effort, and money to create for the Wii. 2. Right now, the Wii's getting a free ride due to the enduring success of the PS2. People knock the third-party Wii library for producing a lot of PS2 ports, but those only exist because the Wii is a trivial port target for PS2 games in the way that the PS3/360 are for each other. This is fine right now, while the PS2 is still a going concern, but two years from now, there won't be a PS2 to amortize development costs with. 3. The combination of the top two points means that the Wii has to earn its keep with third-party titles, and has to sell enough all by itself to make them worth it for publishers. But this is where those February numbers come in: First-party software for the Wii is MASSIVELY outselling third-party software right now, by a lot. It doesn't appear that Wii buyers are interested in bread-and-butter third-party titles. Which makes sense for two reasons: 1) A lot of Wii buyers are multi-platform owners, and if you have a choice between buying a game on the 360 (with next-gen graphics, HD support, online capability, achievements, etc.) or buying it on the Wii (prev-gen graphics, no HD, no real online), you're going to buy it on the 360; 2) People who are hardcore gamers mostly bought the Wii for the first-party franchises -- Mario, Zelda, Metroid -- while people who aren't traditional gamers (the alleged grandmas and girlfriends) just don't buy that many games, and are even less likely to buy Unreal 3 or GTA, even if they did exist on the Wii. 4. The result of the top three means that third-party game support on the Wii is likely to be even worse than it was on the GameCube (which was a trivial port between the PS2 and Xbox), and more in line with the N64. And without third parties, you need a steady and fast flow of first-party games. But what is there? Mario and Metroid were both supposed to come out in the spring of this year; I think Mario's already been pushed back to fall, and Metroid (unofficially) to 2008. So that's two games over the course of the next year -- and then what? Nintendo swore they won't have a first party game drought this generation, but I don't see how they can avoid it. 5. So that's the "hard" stuff, the stuff based on technical and financial realities (or, at least, suppositions). Then there's the soft stuff, the perceptions and intangibles. This is where the Wii is doing really well right now, but I think they've got problems coming up. Nintendo's always struggled with being pigeonholed as the "kiddie" console. Well, the Wii still has some of that problem -- nothing on the Wii so far is going to appeal to the mainstream gamer demographic, that 16-24 year-old male who plays Madden and GTA in his dorm room -- but they've got a new problem now, which is that the Wii is seen as being, well, a "chick console." All the talk about how girlfriends and wives will play the Wii is having an effect. Reading this month's EGM, I was struck that the editors responded to a letter critical of the Wii by noting in its favor "Girls love it." It was a bit tongue-in-cheek, I know, and women are part of the gaming market, and ancient guys like me aren't worried about getting cooties -- but your typical Joe Sixpack young guy isn't going to be wild about having a console that's variously kiddy or girly (particularly if it also means he can't play GTA or Halo). So, long story short, I wonder if Nintendo's strategy of reaching out for the non-gaming market is going to doom the Wii to niche status. On the plus side for Nintendo, they're making money on the Wii hardware from day one, and their first-party franchises sell very well, so they're making good money there, too. They can do just fine with niche status. It's only the rare gamers who try to make the Wii their sole/primary console who'll be in trouble...