I'd also like to mention the points at which the trends become irreversible against PS3... Americas: - After Holiday 07'. If Sony has not made strong strides, Halo 3 and a future 360 price drop all but ensure Microsoft will beat Sony. GTA could have combatted Halo 3, but Sony won't have anything comparable, unless Killzone 2 pulls off a miracle. Wii will likely be the second place seller, so long as at least one of the big 3 is critically loved and released before..November. Japan: - May 2007. Sony needs to outsell Wii during Golden Week to keep the prospect of a come back alive in Japan. While I do expect PS3 sales to go up, the Wii will be in stock, and driven by Super Paper Mario. This trend is one that started in fall 2005, not 2006, when PS2 began to slow down, and 3rd parties began to look for their next source of revenue. Nov 1, 2005 -April 30, 2007 is what I consider to be this transition period. Europe: - The most critical period is from launch to October for PS3, but I don't think this will be decided until March 2008 after demand can be assessed for PS3 over the course of a full year. With the Easter holiday approaching, I expect Microsoft and Nintendo to be well stocked for Sony's launch. To reverse all three trends, I'd say Sony needs the luck of the Irish...but I imagine the executives are fairly nervous on this otherwise joyous St. Patrick's Day...
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu