I think that would be reasonable, i still think Blu Ray will be the wild card....as stand alone gaming consoles, i think the PS3 has no chance to catch the 360 with GTA being cross console and many others moving that way.....unless the PS3 finds its gears of war in Lair or Heavenly Sword or something else it will be tough, for every exclusive blockbuster Sony has now, the 360 has its match at this point....so as it stands i think it will be tough.
Yes, but I think It will probably stay tough. The Wii and the X-Box 360 have right now a significant price advantage. WIth an expected price cut of the XBox 360 it would even increase. If the PS-3 would follow with significant financial pains it would still not make up the advantage of the Xbox 360 that suddenly gets to the border line for casual gamers.
And for the BluRay: if this format will stay the prices for new BluRay players would probably drop much faster than the price of the PS-3. Beyond 300 $ (Euro) it would simply not be real possibility of the normal market. The markets for BLuRay and games are not really the same. The BluRay makes the most sense with a beamer or a big display (bigger than 42''), while for HD games a 32 to 40'' Display is sufficient (and significantly cheaper). In fact for a Xbox 360 you could simply use a normal LCD monitor to get the kids away from the big TV and out of the room).
Due to its power consumption the PS-3 would be more expensive to watch BluRays than a STand Alone Player, which can probably even offer a better DVD Upscaling.