I disagree with you for a few reasons - I do not feel Sony will scrap/discontinue the PS3's support in 60 months as you think they will. They already stated the PS3 is a long term solution for their gaming console, and you have them existing the same amount of time as the Wii which I believe is wrong. Sony, like Nintendo, has the ability to do well worldwide. However, Sony has the stronger track record in the US and Europe/other territories, and I think that this won't change this generation. The Wii HASN'T done the amazing things in Europe and other territories that other's have felt that it has. The PS3 should, even with "poor" sales, will surpass the Wii in Europe, and approach the 360 in a few months, and should be a strong area for Sony in the future. You say the 360 will chart well and do around 48m units (which it should), but Sony will do the same, despite most likely doing slightly better in Europe and still having a market in Japan - this doesn't make a bit of sence. I am going to put forth my own predictions and insights soon. Remember, if you count revenue, the PS3 beats the Wii out - showing that consumers WANT the PS3 vs. Wii, but can't afford it.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.