End of 2007 Predictions

[TheSource]

I can actually see three scenarios happening... Status Quo: 360 keeps lead in USA, 'others' Wii sells about as well in US, less in others, more in Japan than 360 PS3 close 3rd in USA once exclusives come, 2nd in Japan, distant 3rd in 'others' Total sales would be like this in this scenario... Wii - NA: 4-6 million Japan 6-8 million Others 1-3 Million 11-17 million in sales...call it 14 million 360 - NA 8-10 million Japan .5-1 million Others 6-9 million 14.5-20 million in sales...call it 17.25 million PS3 - NA 3-4.5 million Japan 2-4 million Others .5-2 million 5.5-10.5 million in sales...call it 8 million But then you have to consider these scenarios: Microsoft: Best case scenario: 360 dominates NA and Europe by being easier to develop for and on par with PS3 in power, and slowly Japanese developers can make enough profit selling games in those markets that they bring exclusive Xbox games to Japan, giving the 360 better sales in Japan. The Wii does not appeal to some developers, because they can not figure out how to utilize the motion sensing... In which case, Microsoft beats Sony at Sony's game...and makes in roads against Nintendo. 360: NA 11-14 million Japan 1-3 million Others 9-11 million 21-28 million...call it 24.5 million Wii: NA 3-4.5 million Japan 3-5 million Others 1-2 million 7-11.5 million...call it 9.25 million PS3: NA 1-2 million Japan 2-4 million Others .5-1 3.5-7 million...call it 5.25 million Microsoft: Worst Case Scenario Gamers fall in love with the potential of the PS3 and give it the benefit of the doubt. The Wii becomes an unstoppable force in Japan like the DS and does not face hardware shortages in Europe. With large install bases in NA Wii and PS3 become proftiable platforms to develop exclusive games for. 360: NA 6.5-8.5 million Japan .5-.7million Others 3-6 million 10-15.2 million...call it 12.6 million Wii: NA 5-7 million Japan 7-9 million Others 2-4 million 14-20 million...call it 17 million PS3: NA 4-6 million Japan 2.5-4.5 million Others 1.5-3.5 million 8-14 million...call it 11 million I'd put the odds of each scenario like this.. Status Quo: 67% Best Case: 22% Worst Case: 11%