At the current pace neither BR nor HD will replace DVD. As others have said, I think the next evolution is downloadable movies (rent or buy). Its only a matter of time before Apple or MS make it happen. For those who absolutely must have originals, DVD will still be around. Most people are not Audio/Video freaks anyway. They cant tell the difference between VHS, DVD, and HD/BR except that VHS tapes are clunky, and DVD/HD/BR all use a similar size package. Want more evidence? What MP3 bitrate is the most downloaded? You will find that 128-192kbps is the most popular even though we have many songs in higher quality.
But even for the Audio/Video affectionados, downloadable movies will be much better quality than HD and BR and will probably have a smaller file size for storage and not to mention no more discs and sleeves to store. In time I assume that we will have cheap ways to store movies but for now you could always use a DVR, DVDR, and your own PC if youre a techie. But on current hard drives (say 500g) you could easily store 350 DVD quality movies (mpeg4 compressed), and around 200 HD/BR quality movies. Thats a lot more than most peoples movie libraries.
