End of 2007 Predictions

[TheSource]

Estimated 2006 numbers first - (skip below dotted line for 2007 predictions) Despite what this website says I believe sales are currently like this (rounded to the 100k when data is actually available): USA: Wii 1.1 million PS3 700k 360 4.5 million Mexico, Canada + Latin America: approx 15% of USA sales based on population, economic and launch conjecture.. 360: 675k Wii: 165k PS3: 105k North America: Wii: 1.265 million PS3: 805,000 360: 5.175 million Marketshare North America Next-Gen 2006: 360 = 71.4% Wii = 17.46% PS3 = 11.14% Japan (as of January 7, 2007) for Next-Gen: Wii: 1.1 million PS3: 500k 360: 300k Marketshare Next gen Japan: Wii: 57.89% PS3: 26.31% 360: 15.8% I'd like to do Europe/Australia but I don't have figures for them. I do know the Wii sold 350k in week one. Pretend that the figures for Wii and 360 are flawless in Others (likely lower) as they are and you get Wii: .94 million PS3 = Nada 360 = 2.64 (not doing marketshare until PS3 releases) In which case world totals on this site vs estimates on real data at the start of 07' are: 360: 8.115 million (.23/8.34)(100) = 2.75% off Wii: 3.305 million (.7/4)(100) = 17.5% off PS3: 1.305 million (.1/2)(100) = 5% off Consider also: if Sony shipped 2 million worldwide...65% sellthrough to customers? if Nintendo shipped 4 million worldwide...83% sellthrough to customers? If Microsoft shipped 10.4 million worldwide...78% sellthrough to customers? Worldwide estimated market share.. 360 - 63% Wii - 26% PS3 - 11% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Now for 2007 Predictions: - Sony and Nintendo each increase worldwide marketshare at least 10% Why? Well, for one Sony is still absent in Europe. Two, the Wii has taken off with the Japanese - as a game not packed in - Wii Sports has sold around 700k, on a system with a userbase of 1.1 million in Japan. In addtion, Dragon Quest IX on the DS will lift all Nintendo platforms in sales. Therefore, Microsoft will lose what little ground it has made in Japan. Sony will not be able to adequately meet Japenese demand, focusing instead on launch shortages in Europe. - Microsoft will make significant inroads in non US & Japanese markets because the PS3 launched too late, and the Wii can not meet demand world wide until mid 2007. The consoles will be scarcer in Europe than in the US. With all that said...I see final 2007 market share and sales like this: Europe/Australia Japan NA 360 - 65% Wii - 65% 360 - 48% Wii - 20% PS3 - 25% Wii - 32% PS3 - 15% 360 - 10% PS3 - 20% (10 million next-gen) (8 million next-gen) (15 million next-gen) I'm also assuming many will buy more than one console, making the total userbase smaller then what it is sold by combining the sales of all three consoles. 360 = Europe - 6.5 mill Japan - 0.8 mill Americas - 7.2 mill Worldwide - 14.5 million Wii = Europe 2.0 million Japan 5.2 million Americas 4.8 million Worldwide - 12 million PS3 = Europe 1.5 million Japan 2.0 million Americas 3.0 million Worldwide - 6.5 million Worldwide marketshare end 2007 360: 43.9% Wii: 36.4% PS3: 19.7% 2006 v 2007 360 - 63% 360 - 43.9% Wii - 26% Wii - 36.4% PS3 - 11% PS3 - 19.7%