The hypothetical scenario that the Biden Super PAC peeps are warning of -- the possibility of this turning into a Bernie vs. Bloomberg contest by Super Tuesday -- is, in fact, looking like a real possibility. This is because...

...When you think about who Elizabeth Warren's constituency has been and the fact that New Hampshire is as close to constituting her home turf as you can get outside of her home state of Massachusetts (it immediately borders Massachusetts), you realize that tonight's outcome is crucial for the Warren campaign. This for them is realistically the end of the line: if she doesn't shock the nation by pulling out a first or second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary tonight, she might as well pack it in because what that suggests is that she can't win anywhere and that her fundraising is about to dry up. She probably will, in fact. I suspect that she'll drop out of the race before the South Carolina primary on the 29th, and probably sooner rather than later. Who will that objectively benefit? Where will the Warren people tend to go absent Warren being in the race? The Sanders camp. That would consolidate the progressive vote around a single candidate. AND...

...Don't kid yourselves, people, the Mike Bloomberg surge is very, very real. His current RCP polling average nationwide is up to 13% as of this writing, and one survey has him as high as 17% support now. He really has just simply bought his way into relevance with all of these campaign ads that I think we've been inundated with by now. Who forms the Bloomberg support base, you ask? Well...you know those former supporters of Kamala Harris and Cory Booker? You know how the cessation of those campaigns unexpectedly failed to benefit Biden in the polls? Well guess where those voters went. Yeah, Bloomberg. That's why. And he's really starting to get some big-name endorsements, including a notable supply of African American ones. I highlight the existence of a growing black support base for Michael Bloomberg because black voters form the core of Biden's support; the main reason why he has polled so well nationwide up until now. If a large pool of black voters abandons Biden for Bloomberg on Super Tuesday (which are the states where Bloomberg is campaigning), guess what that means for Biden. Yeah, his campaign is done. That's what it means. That really could happen. AND...

...As to the Buttigieg factor...well folks, let me point this out: he has no support among black people at all. It is simply not possible to win the Democratic nomination without an appreciable volume of support from African Americans because they form the core and most loyal section of Democratic voters. And let us imagine if somehow he managed to; what then would happen in the general election against Trump, realistically? You see my point? Buttigieg will not be the winner. SO...

...Bloomberg is shaping up to be the most viable candidate in the neoliberal lane of the party. Yes, really. For real. Check out what happens on Super Tuesday. And what's the most plausible result of a Bernie vs. Bloomberg contest unfolding beginning on Super Tuesday, you ask? A Bernie Sanders nomination because Bloomberg just isn't the next Barack Obama, folks. He's NOT an inspiring character and has little youth support. Plus the fact that he has to wait all the way until March to debut disadvantages his campaign structurally.

It's official now, Bernie is leading the national polls, not Biden anymore. Only the Economist is still trailing, all the others have switched to bernie in their aggregates:

And looks like Bloomberg is all like "Here comes a new Challenger!" Pete also gained a lot from his result in Iowa.

Looks like Biden already feels like he has nothing to gain in NH. He is already leaving to go to SC and Nevada.

https://apps.npr.org/liveblogs/20200211-new-hampshire/share/biden-to-skipping-new-hampshire-42.html

Mike of Humanist Report is ripping into the Iowa clusterfuck:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBWSHHVkmWk

I'll watch that later, but Iowa was not a clusterfuck. We had paper ballots that we had to sign in addition to voting with our feet, by standing in a candidate's corner. Everyone could see the counts for themselves. 99% of all votes got counted correctly. The only reason they are doing a recanvass is because the election was so close, and because Pete's camp requested it. The only way they fucked up was with having an app for reporting the results, instead of more traditional methods. The app was used for reporting, but not counting actual votes. That was done in person, and was an open process with many people getting their phones out to record the count themselves in a video. 

Also, the Iowa Caucuses are fantastic, because they are basically in person ranked choice voting. It gets even better because you can physically see the support for other candidates, which may influence your choice. Was your first pick Biden, and you second pick Klobochar? Well you can see physically, that nobody in your precinct supports them, so you move to your 3rd pick, which is Bernie, or Pete. This helps ensure that people vote for who they both like, and think will win. If we didn't have the Iowa Caucuses Obama, and Bernie wouldn't have a shot. We'd have been stuck with Hillary in 08, and Biden in 2020. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-theres-a-new-face-in-our-forecast-its-bloomberg/?cid=referral_taboola_feed

Bloomberg's only real shot at getting the nomination is to do a contested convention. In other words him, and the Dem establishment would have to come out and screw Bernie at the convention.

The latest season of Bernie's been lit so far.

https://youtu.be/QSutcAj1Ook

Anybody has an idea at what time to expect first real results from NH?

I'm gonna say around 8pm et. or 7pm et that's when polling closes so we should see results after that, though I think they said by 9:30pm et

That's great, I like it.