Many are speculating when PS5 and Nextbox will release.  Whether you think it will be 2019, 2020, or 2021 there is one question I have had ever since Nintendo had that great Spring launch.  When is the right time of year to release? 

Nintendo didn't have a previous gen to worry about destroying its holiday numbers since WiiU's numbers were irrelevant at that point.  So the Spring release worked for them.  I think if you're following up a successful console though like PS5 will be doing you should shoot for September.  Consoles need a huge initial bump at first to get a base for software.  So they seem to like to release DURING the holidays (November).  I think this misses some MAJOR sales they could accrue during their launch window.  There are going to be a massive amount of preorders for both of these consoles just like there were for their predecessors.  Things will sell out quickly.  Sony around 2m preorders if I remember right.  Why not get millions of sales in September and October and get all the big software day and date for that Fall THEN just when that's slowing down you get millions more as you resupply right as the holidays approach.  It's two big sales bumps right off the bat with WAY more time to produce.  You don't need to lump the holiday and launch bump together as the demand exceeds supply.

But I'm saying the only reason Nintendo could launch in Spring because they didn't have to worry about hurting the predecessor's holiday.  You can't announce a console in January and launch in March.  So you'd have to announce before the holiday which would result in a MUCH lower holiday for the previous console because most would simply wait for the next thing.  Also you don't need BF sales when it's still the new thing.  You're still lumping together the two major initial selling periods when you launch in November.  I think October is better than November because holiday sales will be as high as they would be for a November launch but now you've manufactured more and gotten a couple million install base to the hardcore out of the way.

From what I've seen, the Holiday season is the worst time to launch a console.

First, if your console is good, your Holiday season is going to be good. It doesn't need the launch boost factor. Likewise, if your console is good, launch won't need the Holiday factor, either.

More importantly, you won't suffer from the impact of both factors on your supply potential. If you're going to be constrained at launch then it's pointless to be MORE constrained. Launching early in the year mitigates that somewhat relative to BOTH periods, as you and your retailers have a chance to recover and restock. Otherwise, you're missing a lot of possible sales all at once during optimal sales windows.

I mean .. if we're using internet logic, March, so that PS5 can "destroy"  Switch and we can make an easy launch-aligned graph. 

If we're talking real world data, then obviously holidays. People have tried to claim that March had big benefits for Switch, but all it really does in it's favor is make holidays come at a different interval than other consoles, which makes it look like a net-positive on a graph. It also had to launch then because the Wii U was dead and the 3DS was dying.

But if you look at something like shipments, you see that the Switch took a long ass time to catch up to PS4's launch sales in shipment numbers. PS4 sold through 4.2 million consoles from late November to the end of December, Switch didn't even ship 4.7 million till late June, and that's a period of 4 months vs 1 month and a week and a half. 

Edit: To make this fact even more relevant, the PS4 didn't even launch in Japan till February 2014, and it still beat the Switch's first two months that badly. 

but even the less successful consoles like the One have massive preorders at launch.  If you have a successful predecessor you're guaranteed a million+ preorders at this point.  Also I don't think Nintendo would launch in Spring with a more successful predecessor and given the hybrid nature of Switch it wasn't exactly a normal successor to 3DS so that's a little different than cutting the legs of PS4 with a launch trailer.  Even rumors have hurt console sales and mindshare is important even if late adopter and early adopters tend to be different.

There is always shortages come holidays on launch year, and I feel it "wastes" some of the potentiall sales a holiday could bring.
Thus I think its actually smarter to launch earlier on in the year, say around April.

That way you get the launch boost effect (hardcore day1 buys) and have enough time to stock up again, for the first holidays.
Nintendo did it the right way imo, with the Switch.

Launch it early in the year, instead of at the end.
I think it leads to better sales, overall and early gen, stuff like that matters.

Do you actually think they could launch in September or October and NOT have big holiday sales?  Like that bump is gonna be there regardless

^ so much this.

That was why I voted April.

Maximise effect of launch sales, and have time to restock for holidays and not waste that sales potential.
I think this is a safer and better way to go about things as well.

Past consoles don't matter.

Holidays and hype (pre-orders) both boost sales. If you want a hedge against bad sales or to break a record, launch in Oct/Nov.

The 'greats' can be rolled out over months or years and it won't matter longterm. Eg. Tetris, SMB, Pokemon, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Minecraft, Fortnite, Kinect, GB, NES, PS1, DS, Wii, Switch.

I voted March, but that assumes that you know you have a good console on their hands.  The Switch launched with Breath of the Wild, and it seemed like Nintendo knew they had a strong game on their hands.  (It was essentially the only game featured at E3 2016.)  In this situation you get a strong launch month, and then you get a strong holiday season, so you maximize sales that way.  This is also a risky month, because, if your console has a disappointing launch then it will be really obvious (like 3DS).

So the safe month would be November or maybe October.  All of the console's hardcore fans and going to buy it regardless, so launching near the holidays makes it look like its a hot item, and the press can say the console is in short supply and so forth.  But really this is a conservative move.  It shows that you don't have the confidence to release outside of the holiday season.  I suppose it is better to be safe than sorry though.