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How many will be Nintendo's forecast for FY2019 ?

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Switch shipment forecast for FY2019 ?

below 17 5 5.10%
 
17 8 8.16%
 
18 18 18.37%
 
19 9 9.18%
 
20 34 34.69%
 
21 6 6.12%
 
22 6 6.12%
 
23 4 4.08%
 
24 1 1.02%
 
25 or more 7 7.14%
 
Total:98

So yeah 20 million again is very realistic



Mario Maker 2 in June will make big difference compared to 2018.



I expect between 18-20M... I'm not sure if they will trend up YOY, but there is a good change, being only 3 year in the market.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

colafitte said:
Miyamotoo said:

I change quite a bit my post, so if you can reply to my changed post. Also, thats huge drop from 18m to 11m, I dont see thats kind of drop is possible in 4. year on market for Switch. Only around 10m more than 3DS sound to little for Switch.

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 

Your 2020 is laughably low, even the Wii didn't crash hard enough to keep up with those numbers of yours.

You're expecting way too much from the Next gen launch. Switch got tons of hype, but did that make the PS4 come down crashing? Nope, instead it went on becoming it's best year ever. Also, I'm pretty sure the next gen will have a slow start, as the gap between the Pro/X and the next gen will be rather small visually.

Edit: On topic: I think they will give 20M a second try. And since there will be tons of great games throughout the year I actually expect the Switch to beat the expectation from Nintendo this time around.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 14 February 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
colafitte said:

Your 2019 and 2020 FY are very optimistic for my tastes. There's where our main differences come between us. 

And yes, I expect a huge drop in shipments in FY 2020. By 2020-2021 I expect Switch saturation mixed by next gen hype absorbing all the attention by the people who buys switch only as a home console. Remember that sales and shipments doesn't work the same so that's why expect some differences between sales and shipments with more sales than shipments in some years. 

Maybe in 2020 I was too low, maybe 12M instead of 11M and 9M instead of 10M in 2021 would be better. 

Your 2020 is laughably low, even the Wii didn't crash hard enough to keep up with those numbers of yours.

You're expecting way too much from the Next gen launch. Switch got tons of hype, but did that make the PS4 come down crashing? Nope, instead it went on becoming it's best year ever. Also, I'm pretty sure the next gen will have a slow start, as the gap between the Pro/X and the next gen will be rather small visually.

Edit: On topic: I think they will give 20M a second try. And since there will be tons of great games throughout the year I actually expect the Switch to beat the expectation from Nintendo this time around.

The year you are using for Wii to compare is not a fair comparison, because Wii "crashed" in sales in 2011. By the time 2010 ended, Wii had around 50 months in existence since launch and 2010 was the first year Wii sold less than the year before. By the time 2020 ends, Switch will have 46 months in existence. People don't use correctly the years comparing both consoles because Wii launched in November and Switch in March, That's 10 months before its first calendar year ended, and those months have to be counted. And in this case, those months had 3 or 4 of the most succesful games the console  still has, Zelda BOTW, MK8 DX, Splatoon 2, SM Odyssey, so a lot of people bought the console by that time, earlier than normal.

During 2020, Switch is going to stop growing and start falling in my opinion. By the time Nintendo reveals its FY2019 (March 2020), Switch is going to have more than 50M shipped. Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

People say that WiiU failed for a lot of reasons, price, bad games at launch, bad marketing, and all of them are true of course. But for me, the main reason WiiU failed was because just after launch (Holiday 2012), next gen consoles were announced. By June 2013 nobody cared about WiiU because all the attention was directed to PS4 and XBO by then. Yes, i know, Switch is not the same as WiiU, thanks to Switch inheriting most of the 3DS audience, but it will affect sales anyway. 

So yes, longevity, new gen consoles plus all the main franchises already launching at least one of their big games on Switch (except Metroid Prime 4) by 2020 will be reasons as why it will affect Switch sales to drop heavily after that point. Despite all of this, Switch, like i said will probably sell/ship around 12M, maybe 13M that year. It will be a phenomenal number yet.

 

(i know i'm sounding like what i am saying is going to be a fact, but it's not my intention, i'm only giving my humble opinion, nothing more).



colafitte said:

The year you are using for Wii to compare is not a fair comparison, because Wii "crashed" in sales in 2011. By the time 2010 ended, Wii had around 50 months in existence since launch and 2010 was the first year Wii sold less than the year before. By the time 2020 ends, Switch will have 46 months in existence. People don't use correctly the years comparing both consoles because Wii launched in November and Switch in March, That's 10 months before its first calendar year ended, and those months have to be counted. And in this case, those months had 3 or 4 of the most succesful games the console  still has, Zelda BOTW, MK8 DX, Splatoon 2, SM Odyssey, so a lot of people bought the console by that time, earlier than normal.

During 2020, Switch is going to stop growing and start falling in my opinion. By the time Nintendo reveals its FY2019 (March 2020), Switch is going to have more than 50M shipped. Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

People say that WiiU failed for a lot of reasons, price, bad games at launch, bad marketing, and all of them are true of course. But for me, the main reason WiiU failed was because just after launch (Holiday 2012), next gen consoles were announced. By June 2013 nobody cared about WiiU because all the attention was directed to PS4 and XBO by then. Yes, i know, Switch is not the same as WiiU, thanks to Switch inheriting most of the 3DS audience, but it will affect sales anyway. 

So yes, longevity, new gen consoles plus all the main franchises already launching at least one of their big games on Switch (except Metroid Prime 4) by 2020 will be reasons as why it will affect Switch sales to drop heavily after that point. Despite all of this, Switch, like i said will probably sell/ship around 12M, maybe 13M that year. It will be a phenomenal number yet.

 

(i know i'm sounding like what i am saying is going to be a fact, but it's not my intention, i'm only giving my humble opinion, nothing more).

Do you think the launch of PS4 and Xbox One had an impact on 3DS sales?



StarDoor said:
colafitte said:

The year you are using for Wii to compare is not a fair comparison, because Wii "crashed" in sales in 2011. By the time 2010 ended, Wii had around 50 months in existence since launch and 2010 was the first year Wii sold less than the year before. By the time 2020 ends, Switch will have 46 months in existence. People don't use correctly the years comparing both consoles because Wii launched in November and Switch in March, That's 10 months before its first calendar year ended, and those months have to be counted. And in this case, those months had 3 or 4 of the most succesful games the console  still has, Zelda BOTW, MK8 DX, Splatoon 2, SM Odyssey, so a lot of people bought the console by that time, earlier than normal.

During 2020, Switch is going to stop growing and start falling in my opinion. By the time Nintendo reveals its FY2019 (March 2020), Switch is going to have more than 50M shipped. Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

People say that WiiU failed for a lot of reasons, price, bad games at launch, bad marketing, and all of them are true of course. But for me, the main reason WiiU failed was because just after launch (Holiday 2012), next gen consoles were announced. By June 2013 nobody cared about WiiU because all the attention was directed to PS4 and XBO by then. Yes, i know, Switch is not the same as WiiU, thanks to Switch inheriting most of the 3DS audience, but it will affect sales anyway. 

So yes, longevity, new gen consoles plus all the main franchises already launching at least one of their big games on Switch (except Metroid Prime 4) by 2020 will be reasons as why it will affect Switch sales to drop heavily after that point. Despite all of this, Switch, like i said will probably sell/ship around 12M, maybe 13M that year. It will be a phenomenal number yet.

 

(i know i'm sounding like what i am saying is going to be a fact, but it's not my intention, i'm only giving my humble opinion, nothing more).

Do you think the launch of PS4 and Xbox One had an impact on 3DS sales?

Well, i don't think 3DS was competing against those consoles or that is just the only reason why affected 3DS sales, but according to VGC, 3DS went from 14M in 2013 to less than 10M in 2014, so...it could be one of the reasons?, maybe??, i don't know. By end of 2014, 3DS had 46 months in existence too, so what i'm saying is that all of the factors than i think it's going to happen to Switch could have happend to 3DS too.



With Mario Maker, Animal Crossing and Pokemon (+ Fire Emblem and Dragon Quest in Japan) as the major system sellers of the year, I think they're going to go for 20 million again with even more confidence that they'll reach the goal.

If Japan is anything to go by, the Switch should be noticeably up YoY so far and with Mario Maker being the big, blockbuster, Summer title for this year, that game along with Fire Emblem should carry the Switch up considerably YoY from June through August. Then September through December is where it'll get really interesting, because somewhere within that time, if all goes as planned, we should get Luigi's Mansion 3, Link's Awakening, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon Gen 8 coming out. If you thought last year's holiday lineup with Super Mario Party, Pokemon Let's Go, and Smash Bros. Ultimate was great, that wouldn't even compare to this year's lineup if those four games are the ones we get!

Nintendo has all the pieces they need to put that 20 million puzzle together this year. If they don't screw it up, they should reach it.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

colafitte said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Your 2020 is laughably low, even the Wii didn't crash hard enough to keep up with those numbers of yours.

You're expecting way too much from the Next gen launch. Switch got tons of hype, but did that make the PS4 come down crashing? Nope, instead it went on becoming it's best year ever. Also, I'm pretty sure the next gen will have a slow start, as the gap between the Pro/X and the next gen will be rather small visually.

Edit: On topic: I think they will give 20M a second try. And since there will be tons of great games throughout the year I actually expect the Switch to beat the expectation from Nintendo this time around.

 Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

Are we generalise things? I only saw that kind of comments just for Assassin's Creed 3 and Dead by Daylight, bad port is bad port, it doesn't matter about what platform we talking about. And huge majority of people were talking how different kind of games in Direct we saw, both 1st party and 3rd party, no how 1 or 2 games looked bad, and guess what, Switch will only getting much more different 3rd party games in any case. Switch will not stop receving games because PS5/XB2, buy time they arive Switch will be platform with install base of around 70m and will be very healthy platform in any case, so offcourse that plenty of 3rd party will keep releasing games for Switch, I mean its not like that Switch is getting even now plenty of AAA current gen games that next gen will effect on Switch support.

Talking about sales, Super Mario Maker 2 launch in June is huge difference compared to last year, we are getting big Switch game at end of Q1 of FY19, while we in 2018. we needed to wait Q3 of FY18 for big game, and Nintendo itself that main reason why they will not hit 20m goal in FY 2018. is lower sales in April-September period, this year same period will be quite stronger when comes to releases.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 14 February 2019

Miyamotoo said:
colafitte said:

 Yesterday at the last Nintendo Direct people could see how 3rd party games looked worse or even awful on Switch compared to PS4/XBO, and most of them were not very demanding or recent games. How is Switch going to look in 2020 with the next gen then??.

Are we generalise things? I only saw that kind of comments just for Assassin's Creed 3 and Dead by Daylight, bad port is bad port, it doesn't matter about what platform we talking about. And huge majority of people were talking how different kind of games in Direct we saw, both 1st party and 3rd party, no how 1 or 2 games looked bad, and guess what, Switch will only getting much more different 3rd party games in any case. Switch will not stop receving games because PS5/XB2, buy time they arive Switch will be platform with install base of around 70m and will be very healthy platform in any case, so offcourse that plenty of 3rd party will keep releasing games for Switch, I mean its not like that Switch is getting even now plenty of AAA current gen games that next gen will effect on Switch support.

Talking about sales, Super Mario Maker 2 launch in June is huge difference compared to last year, we are getting big Switch game at end of Q1 of FY19, while we in 2018. we needed to wait Q3 of FY18 for big game.

I was just giving my opinion. AC3, DbD, DQ XI, Senua, all looked blurry, or had huge framerate problems compared to PS4/XBO. And those are just games from last Direct, there are other games that suffered a lot already on sale. So yes, most games that were meant to work on PS4/XBO look way worse on Switch is a fair "generalisation". 

And no, 3rd party devs that will spent a lot of money and time making games for PS5/XB2 won't spent as much money, time and games on Switch, despite having a bigger install base. That didn't happen with Wii compared to PS3/X360 and it's not going to happen with Switch for obvious reasons. You forget too that those companies will still sell games on PS4 and XBO that will have an even bigger instal base than Switch. By the time they stop selling games on those consoles (and Switch has 70M sold like you said), PS5/XB2 will have enough install base combined to sell specific games for those consoles.

We are in 2019 and Capcom, Square Enix, EA, Activision, Bethesda, Ubisoft, etc have not announced a single exclusive AAA game for Switch. Some of them will make games for Switch of course, but those games won't help Switch to sell better, because they won't be the best games from those companies. 

Switch is going to live and die on 1st party Nintendo games. 3rd party games and indies are just icing on the cake.