Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa announced worldwide sell-through sales of the Nintendo Switch has surpassed 30 million units by the end of January. So :

- 14.86 million units of the Nintendo Switch shipped as of december 31, 2017.

- 32.27 million units of the Nintendo Switch shipped as of December 31, 2018. 

- More than 30 million units of the Nintendo Switch sold as of January 31, 2019. 

So over the calendar year 2018 :

Nintendo delivered 17.41 million distributed consoles and sold less than 17 million consoles to consumers.

In the end no as the final LT shipped amount is seen as sold through which is why the fuss between sold and shipped becomes silly.

I have refreshed every values with last adjustments for the 2 years.

This time I have added an offset of 0,8M in transit on March 31st.

To get this baseline of 244.000 for regular weeks I have taken the average of the same period in previous year and multiplied by 1.24.

Smash Ultimate should pass 20 million lifetime, a milestone very few games can even hope to sniff.

I have the feeling that Nintendo just “gave up” on this quarter. After nsmbu deluxe, it is Yoshi’s turn at the end of the quarter.

Yeah I get the same impression. In fact they almost seem to have given up on the entire first half of the year tbh, there's Yoshi and Fire Emblem but just those two are not enough to drive momentum over six months. I hope this doesn't signal a trend of Nintendo turning into Microsoft and only really trying during the end of year quarter while letting the engine idle from January to October like they did last year.

Not an invalid position, but don't you think you were right when you said Nintendo probably had higher expectations for Labo? If so, and it performed as we presume Nintendo expected, they would largely have taken your advice, they just didn't execute their plan well.

A fair fate for a platform that had some good software, but was ultimately not good hardware.

Is this physically possible? I haven't been keeping super up to date with improvements in battery life technology, but I haven't heard of any recent breakthroughs, although I' cautiously optimistic about a few of the projects being touted.

You're...welcome? I hope you haven't been nursing some kind of internet gru-

Nevermind.

I believe Camelot is second party, not first, i.e.  not owned by Nintendo. As for Octopath, I believe you were later correct that these numbers exclude Japan, as the game was published by Square there. That said, I'm not sure it lit Japan on fire.

Oh, I'd say we have more than enough data by now to not have to wonder.

With Nintendo's revised forecast, I think it might be time to reevaluate the Switch's growth potential in it's later years ...

Regardless of the booming Switch software sales, it is not correlating as strongly with their previous handheld's hardware sales. Switch owners are already ~18% more likely to own another first party game this early in it's life compared to 3DS owners of which the platform is nearing the end of it's life despite the fact that Nintendo has yet to release a couple of their more important franchises on the Switch and they've also released less entries thus far with existing franchises on the Switch compared to the 3DS. This seems to suggest that software sales are mainly being driven by growing interest from regular Nintendo customers themselves rather than new and unique hardware customers so the growing interest in Nintendo's franchises seems to be less organic since we're seeing a significant overlap of interests between Nintendo's franchises rather than growing interest from unique hardware customers ...

With much of their key franchises being released, there is still much more farther progress to be made in hardware sales. Without changing the fundamental such as a price cut it could get difficult to make inroads because a back catalog of released games can only maintain a platform for so long once they reach their saturation point at a certain price point ...

3DS alongside Vita, are platforms that recived biggest hit from phone/tablet gaming, and thats one of main reasons, why 3DS will be worst selling Nintendo handheld and while Vita done so bad.

Fair point, especially since much of the system is basically a 2015 NVidia project. I'd be interested in seeing how the engineers pull it off.