17 million is strange because it took them till quarter 3 to make it meaning they expected better results for holidays. I don't see them catching PS4. I still peg lifetime at 65 million. Sold.

I'm going to be gracious and predict 15.5 million for FY2020. I am predicting around 15 for the PS4. However, the PS5 announcement will crush PS4 sales unless its accompanied by a decent price drop.

There is nothing logical about that prediction.

So about 70% of switch software sales are first party and they account for 85% of the revenue.  Crazy.  Good for nintendo's earnings  but 3rd parties probably want that closer to 50/50.

Honestly 70 million units is already a lock, and the floor of what the Switch will achieve. There is no way it does below that number.

Passes 32 million in less than 2 years.

Hasn't gotten a price cut or a hardware revision yet.

Still has heavy hitters like Animal Crossing and Core Pokemon in the pipe.

But nah, totally only gonna sell another 32.5 million for the entire rest of its lifespan.

C'mon, let's be real about this.

3rd parties dont care about the 1st/3rd ratio, they care about if their games sell well and are profitable.

They probably were hoping that Smash Bros, and its first holiday with any kind of Switch deals, would make up for the lack of sales Labo brought early in the FY.  I agree that they won't catch PS4, as that will hit ~120M or more, but I disagree with the 65M.  I mean, it's not impossible it stops there, but unlikely.  It should at least sell as much as the 3DS did, which will be 75M-76M when all is said and done.  At this point, I think it will end up slightly above the 3DS, so 80M-90M.

With a core Pokemon game launching this year, plus an inevitable price cut (probably only $50), it should be up YOY.  So, at the very least, 18M should be achievable.

Nahhh Switch will see something on the 16-20M for 2019 and 2020. I would guess 20M 2019 and 18M 2020.