Might also want to change the thread in your sig to this one now

Good call.

That gap between 2018 and 2019 is just going to keep increasing every week. Nintendo didn't really release anything major last year until the end of 2018. This year they are already tracking ahead, and you can bet they are going to have a better release schedule this year.

To the point, they seem to have better mid-tier games in the first half of the year. Yoshi and Fire Emblem should easily beat Kirby and Mario Tennis Aces, though the jury is still out on whether NSMBUD really did all that much compared to DKTF last year.

Add to this a vastly increased 3rd party support (MK11, all those Final Fantasy titles, Super Dragon Ball Heroes, Team Sonic Racing, Crash Team Racing for instance, all with release dates between now and end of June) and the baseline should be quite a bit higher throughout the first half of the year. And that's without any new, additional announcements in Directs or otherwise.

Hmm, as Rol pointed out, I don't believe the baseline is much growing this year. Maybe a few K, enough to keep the Switch consistently above 40K without dips below like last year. The reason for that is mostly - that the Switch already sold pretty great in japan. There simply is not too much potential for growth.

This is different in the US and especially europe though. The Switch has the clear potential to grow here - let's see if it can fulfill that potential.

But back to Japan - I still see Switch up against last year. But not because of the baseline, but because of the game release peaks. Even last year some games boosted the sales around 5K-10K. I expect to see such releases more often this year. Additionally there will be bigger peaks on DQ11, Yokai Watch and Animal Crossing. And the holidays will be crazy because of Pokemon.

We may actually be saying the same thing.  I expect the baseline to up a few K every week.  That is just going to make the gap grow between 2018 and 2019 even when there isn't a decent release.  As you pointed out, there are going to also be significant releases throughout the year.  So add these peaks to the baseline, and yeah, the gap between 2018 and 2019 is just going to keep growing and growing.

I think the baseline could be like 20% (~10k) higher this year, which is significant, but there should be a lot more releases that give boosts as well. Also if a new version of the Switch comes out (either a cheaper one or a pro version with the original dropping in price) we could see a several hundred thousand unit bump from that as well. I think Switch will easily clear 4 million this year and I think a good target is 4.5 million with a higher baseline, more game release bumps than last year, revision, lower entry price, Animal Crossing, and Pokemon.

Week 6 numbers have just been added and the Switch just passed 530k in Japan for the year. Compared to last year, the Switch didn't reach that mark until week 10.

And with that Direct, the gap will just get bigger and bigger

Edit: How much did the 3DS do in it's best year? 4.8M? Because if the Switch continues like that it might get rather close call between the two.

Hohooo, yes it will. Yoshi may not move much units when it drops in late March. But the baseline should maintain its level with a few drops here and there until Mario Maker 2 comes out. Then, with Three Houses & Dragon Quest XI S one month later, this summer should be quite the increase of last summer. 

As for your second question, the 3DS' best year, according to VGC, was close to 5.5 million in 2012. That's a BIG year and even with the Switch's current lineup planned for this year, it will be very difficult/highly unlikely to reach those levels. But, I expect the Switch to start noticeably closing the gap on the 3DS in 2020 regardless.