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barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

On the other hand it could be a dream for the DUP since there will most likely never be a border poll in the future for Northern Ireland thus granting their and every other unionists wishes over there ...  

It hasn't been all losses for Britain. They most likely get to keep Northern Ireland forever and no more dealing with freedom of movement or a lack of an independent trade policy ... 



barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

Miles away from a trade deal with the EU. Inf act, miles away from any trade deal with any country, Bexit negotiations, or more precisely the doctoring around the 585 page deal to get it through parliament, is taking up all the time right now.

fatslob-:O said:
barneystinson69 said:
Things could get ugly if there isn’t a deal in place for a soft border in Ireland, and I have no clue how close they are to a trade deal with the EU. Honestly, it’s been a fucking disaster based off of my observations, but it’s not like they can call another referendum without pissing people off. Not a good look for the Tories.

On the other hand it could be a dream for the DUP since there will most likely never be a border poll in the future for Northern Ireland thus granting their and every other unionists wishes over there ...  

It hasn't been all losses for Britain. They most likely get to keep Northern Ireland forever and no more dealing with freedom of movement or a lack of an independent trade policy ... 

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.

The material you posted is irrelevant at hand ... 

Ireland will most likely cave into the EU's demands and will pull out of the agreement as accordingly before any poll is even called. Also it's unlikely that the nationalists will come out on top as the unionists won the total share of votes by a 7% point margin during the last general election so what do you think 2 years will buy you ? 

Also, if you truly thought that the DUP voters were on the fence before they most likely wouldn't contemplate voting for Sinn Fein or even the SDLP. It's far more likely that they'd go back to the UUP or possibly vote non-sectarian parties like Alliance but the reason why DUP exists is because is because the voters thought that the UUP didn't have a strong enough resolution so when they voted for the DUP they were not looking to settle Brexit and are intending to settle Northern Ireland's status of sovereignty immediately. You'll be be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates within the DUP ... 

If the DUP and the other unionists can hold out for for a couple of more years then they'll have inevitably won since then even after if they become the minority later on. Either the EU gives into the demands of the UK or they can kiss goodbye to the idea of a united Ireland. The UK is not stipulated in the GFA to align with either the EU or Ireland in terms of customs policy so they do not intend to make conditions simple for reunification. The ball is either in the EU or in Ireland's court to see a united Ireland ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

That's patently wrong. In fact, quite the reverse. They are forced to call a poll when nationalist parties win an election (start at 2:00 in the video):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIJzc0FiVHA

Looks like it was pretty prophetic, half a year later. And as you can see in the Video, Nationalist parties are closing the gap fast. In fact, the 2017 election is the first one where Unionist parties total dropped below 50%

Even formerly staunch unionists are now thinking about leaving the UK and becoming part of Ireland::

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtuwSixYoE

If Nationalist parties win the next election in Northern Ireland, then they have no choice but call a poll, as they are obliged to by the Good Friday Agreement. The next election is in less than 2 months (May 2nd, same as in England), and I don't think the DUP will be able to win that one considering the voters seem to move away from them.

The material you posted is irrelevant at hand ... 

Ireland will most likely cave into the EU's demands and will pull out of the agreement as accordingly before any poll is even called. Also it's unlikely that the nationalists will come out on top as the unionists won the total share of votes by a 7% point margin during the last general election so what do you think 2 years will buy you

Also, if you truly thought that the DUP voters were on the fence before they most likely wouldn't contemplate voting for Sinn Fein or even the SDLP. It's far more likely that they'd go back to the UUP or possibly vote non-sectarian parties like Alliance but the reason why DUP exists is because is because the voters thought that the UUP didn't have a strong enough resolution so when they voted for the DUP they were not looking to settle Brexit and are intending to settle Northern Ireland's status of sovereignty immediately. You'll be be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates within the DUP ... 

If the DUP and the other unionists can hold out for for a couple of more years then they'll have inevitably won since then even after if they become the minority later on. Either the EU gives into the demands of the UK or they can kiss goodbye to the idea of a united Ireland. The UK is not stipulated in the GFA to align with either the EU or Ireland in terms of customs policy so they do not intend to make conditions simple for reunification. The ball is either in the EU or in Ireland's court to see a united Ireland ... 

@bolded: That's the Brexiteers tactic, not understanding that the EU doesn't just stand for an economic union, but also for common values and standards. Hence why they can't fathom why the EU is willing to take an economic hit instead of relenting on their demands. But Ireland won't pull out. Besides that wouldn't remove the border with the UK anytime soon. And going by Brexit, at the time the UK Parliament finally would have agreed on opening the border to ireland, both Northern Ireland and Scotland would have long left the Union. Seriously they can't seem to stop bickering even if their Life was on the line.

@Italic: Plenty, and just because of Brexit. A recent poll showed that the Nationalists would win over 60% of the popular vote now as also the NI economy is heavily dependent on the open border to Ireland. A hard brexit is a death sentence for almost half the economy there. Also, over 50% want a poll if there's no deal. Just quoting some passages so you'll see why Brexit is so much of a dealbreaker for Northern ireland:

"Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland."

So as you can see, Brexit is the reason why Northern Ireland is swinging into leaving the Union. And that goes for all, Nationalists, Unionists and those who remain neutral between the 2. To quote again:

"Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided - compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.

Some 59% of those who didn't consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided."

Oh, and the Irish are in already, over 73% want a reunited Republic of Ireland.

About the rest: You are aware that the support for the Unionists is shrinking for decades, right? In the 70's Unionist parties claimed over 70% of the vote, but they were sliding under 50% in the last election. And Brexit certainly erodes even more of their voter base, as shown above. Like they said in the videos in the previous post, nationalist Catholics are outgrowing the unionist Protestants and surpassing them in more and more parts of NI.

Of course, that's all with a hard Brexit incoming. With a last minute Brexit deal with the EU I'm fairly sure the DUP could continue their reign, if barely, and thus avoid a NIxit and later Scoxit.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

@bolded: That's the Brexiteers tactic, not understanding that the EU doesn't just stand for an economic union, but also for common values and standards. Hence why they can't fathom why the EU is willing to take an economic hit instead of relenting on their demands. But Ireland won't pull out. Besides that wouldn't remove the border with the UK anytime soon. And going by Brexit, at the time the UK Parliament finally would have agreed on opening the border to ireland, both Northern Ireland and Scotland would have long left the Union. Seriously they can't seem to stop bickering even if their Life was on the line.

Again, the EU doesn't share the same opinion as you do ... 

Hmm, I wonder what Ireland values more. The EU's single market or honoring the Good Friday Agreement. They must pick one and choose because they can't have both in a no-deal Brexit ...  

If the EU are truly interested in solidarity then they must be failing Ireland very hard in that regard as they won't guarantee them no hard Irish border ... 

Bofferbrauer2 said:

@Italic: Plenty, and just because of Brexit. A recent poll showed that the Nationalists would win over 60% of the popular vote now as also the NI economy is heavily dependent on the open border to Ireland. A hard brexit is a death sentence for almost half the economy there. Also, over 50% want a poll if there's no deal. Just quoting some passages so you'll see why Brexit is so much of a dealbreaker for Northern ireland:

"Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland."

So as you can see, Brexit is the reason why Northern Ireland is swinging into leaving the Union. And that goes for all, Nationalists, Unionists and those who remain neutral between the 2. To quote again:

"Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided - compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.

Some 59% of those who didn't consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided."

Oh, and the Irish are in already, over 73% want a reunited Republic of Ireland.

Even though this comes from a DUP member, he still raises some concerns of validity of the polling data and holy shit did they under sampled leave by 2.5x and there were more Alliance voters sampled than both unionist parties combined! 

LMAO, holy shitsicles this is worse data than the time during when operators collected data in the rust belt states in the 2016 US elections ... 

A hard brexit is a deal breaker for the nationalists but it doesn't appear to be a deal breaker among the unionists and again you'll be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates among the DUP, if there is any at that ... 

Bofferbrauer2 said: 

About the rest: You are aware that the support for the Unionists is shrinking for decades, right? In the 70's Unionist parties claimed over 70% of the vote, but they were sliding under 50% in the last election. And Brexit certainly erodes even more of their voter base, as shown above. Like they said in the videos in the previous post, nationalist Catholics are outgrowing the unionist Protestants and surpassing them in more and more parts of NI.

Of course, that's all with a hard Brexit incoming. With a last minute Brexit deal with the EU I'm fairly sure the DUP could continue their reign, if barely, and thus avoid a NIxit and later Scoxit.

It's not happening fast enough in the current relevant timeframe where it really matters the most. As the catholic population develops, their growth rate will consequently decrease thus normalizing things out ... 

The DUP only has to hold out for a couple of more years before either the Good Friday Agreement is inevitably broken while Ireland would have to hold out for around a decade in the process of also getting significantly poorer ...

It was always going to be a question of whether or not Ireland can afford a war of attrition against the DUP but ultimately I don't think Ireland is going to hold being outside the single market because if Ireland decides not to police the goods coming in the EU then they'll just threaten them by doing checks on Irish goods as well ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

@bolded: That's the Brexiteers tactic, not understanding that the EU doesn't just stand for an economic union, but also for common values and standards. Hence why they can't fathom why the EU is willing to take an economic hit instead of relenting on their demands. But Ireland won't pull out. Besides that wouldn't remove the border with the UK anytime soon. And going by Brexit, at the time the UK Parliament finally would have agreed on opening the border to ireland, both Northern Ireland and Scotland would have long left the Union. Seriously they can't seem to stop bickering even if their Life was on the line.

Again, the EU doesn't share the same opinion as you do ... 

Hmm, I wonder what Ireland values more. The EU's single market or honoring the Good Friday Agreement. They must pick one and choose because they can't have both in a no-deal Brexit ...  

If the EU are truly interested in solidarity then they must be failing Ireland very hard in that regard as they won't guarantee them no hard Irish border ... 

It means a hard border for both sides. There's no cop-out for the UK on that one. No, not even with a 0% import tax. And a hard border doesn't mean fortifications. The UK will be obliged to a hard border, too. Hence why I mentioned the bickering in Parliament, by the time they are done bickering and came to an agreement with Ireland Northern Ireland will long have left the UK.

Also, if the UK would really have valued solidarity, they wouldn't have voted to leave the EU in the first place. They have been failing the Irish with it an cause all this mess for them Stop trying to put the blame away from the Brexiteers, without Brexit this wouldn't even have become a problem.

Bofferbrauer2 said:

@Italic: Plenty, and just because of Brexit. A recent poll showed that the Nationalists would win over 60% of the popular vote now as also the NI economy is heavily dependent on the open border to Ireland. A hard brexit is a death sentence for almost half the economy there. Also, over 50% want a poll if there's no deal. Just quoting some passages so you'll see why Brexit is so much of a dealbreaker for Northern ireland:

"Over half (52%) said they would vote for a united Ireland after Brexit, with 39% wishing to stay part of the UK.

In the event of Brexit with a hard border, 56% favoured a united Ireland, with 40% choosing to stay in the UK.

Should the UK somehow remain in the EU, the poll found that more than half (52%) would want to stay in the UK, with just 35% supporting a united Ireland."

So as you can see, Brexit is the reason why Northern Ireland is swinging into leaving the Union. And that goes for all, Nationalists, Unionists and those who remain neutral between the 2. To quote again:

"Only around three quarters (73%) of those from a nationalist background said they would support a united Ireland if Brexit was avoided - compared to 94% wanting to leave the UK after Brexit.

Some 59% of those who didn't consider themselves unionist or nationalist supported a united Ireland after Brexit, but this dropped to 23% if Brexit was avoided."

Oh, and the Irish are in already, over 73% want a reunited Republic of Ireland.

Even though this comes from a DUP member, he still raises some concerns of validity of the polling data and holy shit did they under sampled leave by 2.5x and there were more Alliance voters sampled than both unionist parties combined! 

LMAO, holy shitsicles this is worse data than the time during when operators collected data in the rust belt states in the 2016 US elections ... 

A hard brexit is a deal breaker for the nationalists but it doesn't appear to be a deal breaker among the unionists and again you'll be disappointed to find out that there aren't many moderates among the DUP, if there is any at that ... 

Well, I guess we're gonna see in 2 months when the election comes, I guess. Just don't be surprised if the mood swings against the DUP if there was a hard Brexit in between.

Bofferbrauer2 said: 

About the rest: You are aware that the support for the Unionists is shrinking for decades, right? In the 70's Unionist parties claimed over 70% of the vote, but they were sliding under 50% in the last election. And Brexit certainly erodes even more of their voter base, as shown above. Like they said in the videos in the previous post, nationalist Catholics are outgrowing the unionist Protestants and surpassing them in more and more parts of NI.

Of course, that's all with a hard Brexit incoming. With a last minute Brexit deal with the EU I'm fairly sure the DUP could continue their reign, if barely, and thus avoid a NIxit and later Scoxit.

It's not happening fast enough in the current relevant timeframe where it really matters the most. As the catholic population develops, their growth rate will consequently decrease thus normalizing things out ... 

The DUP only has to hold out for a couple of more years before either the Good Friday Agreement is inevitably broken while Ireland would have to hold out for around a decade in the process of also getting significantly poorer ...

It was always going to be a question of whether or not Ireland can afford a war of attrition against the DUP but ultimately I don't think Ireland is going to hold being outside the single market because if Ireland decides not to police the goods coming in the EU then they'll just threaten them by doing checks on Irish goods as well ... 

I know it's slow, but like I said, Brexit further erodes their voter base. @bolded: Again, the UK also has to get a hard border, no cop-out here possible, that's the WTO rules. If if the UK would be going to lower their tariffs to 0% (and kill of all manufacturing and farming in the UK in the process because imports will be cheaper without the tariffs), those would need to be ratified first (good luck getting that through the parliament first btw, Labour for instance would never allow that to happen), and until then a hard border will be needed.

But I'm done answering to you. What good is it to try showing you all the proofs, signs and everything else if you dismiss them, and common sense if you ignore it. Crash out if you want, but don't be surprised if suddenly you're worse off on your little island and the United Kingdom falls apart because of it. I showed you what will happen, I pointed at everything you would have needed to know, so good luck, you're on your own now.



OlfinBedwere said:
Lafiel said:

so, which news sources do you recommend?

Sad truth is, there aren't really any unbiased mainstream news sources in the UK; it's divided between a small handful of heavily left-wing outlets (The Guardian, the Daily Mirror, The Independent, the BBC to some extent) and everything else is heavily right-wing.

Guardian is not "heavily" left-wing, and most of the "right" wing media is not "heavily" right wing either. Guardian is at best a moderate left wing media corporation whose agenda is broadly compatible with most social liberal democratic ideologies in western countries. It is nowhere close to a true left wing publication, which would means mostly a communist perspective. The Guardian is moderate.

The right wing media are an interesting bunch. They are rather mostly populist than strongly right wing. They typically preach an amalgam of left and right wing perspectives, somehow pandering both to "workers" and the *everyday man* while at the same time advocating a similarly confused set of social and economic policies.



1st, They voted down the "deal" Theresa May presented, and had gotten with the EU.
2nd, They voted down the possibility of leaveing without a deal (ei. they MUST get a deal)

However the EU has told them, this is as good a deal as we re willing to make with you.
They have been clear with the UK, that this is it, its a take it or leave it situation.

Where does the UK go from here?

Do they crash out? Does Scotland declare independence (to stay in the EU)
Does northern Ireland unite (leaveing england, so its all just Ireland) so it can avoid a boarder?
Do they cancel Brexit? and say "screw it, lets just stay in".



JRPGfan said:
1st, They voted down the "deal" Theresa May presented, and had gotten with the EU.
2nd, They voted down the possibility of leaveing without a deal (ei. they MUST get a deal)

However the EU has told them, this is as good a deal as we re willing to make with you.
They have been clear with the UK, that this is it, its a take it or leave it situation.

Where does the UK go from here?

Do they crash out? Does Scotland declare independence (to stay in the EU)
Does northern Ireland unite (leaveing england, so its all just Ireland) so it can avoid a boarder?
Do they cancel Brexit? and say "screw it, lets just stay in".

The second deal is non-binding. And the EU has made it clear even after that vote that there will be no more talks.

But, like one of the independent MP put it:

"Apparently, it is democratic to let us vote on the same thing over and over and over and over again within 3 months, but also undemocratic to let the people have a second vote on the topic 3 years after the first one?"

At this point there are probably only 2 real options left: No deal or no Brexit. Anything in between has become very unlikely.



Wonder if the ones wanting a 2nd ref have the the balls to put no deal on that ballot paper, probably not.