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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 24 November 2018

0D0 on 17 December 2018
Kerotan said:
Immersiveunreality said:

And i really think the following gen is even going to get better, if you think about it then it kinda has the right setup to it.

Sony wants to keep momentum going and let that momentum overflow into nextgen while still partly keeping it in the current and you can expect Microsoft to do everything they can to go back to the xbox360 popularity and to do that they need to get a lot more competitive with Sony on the exclusives and we have seen them prepare for it in the recent years or at least we can say that we have seen the signs for it.

Sony should also predict Microsoft competitiveness for next gen so it can be a possibility they also try to boost exclusives.

And Nintendo is a case on its own competitors wise and does not really have to share its market with the other ones as it has such a coexisting nature with its exclusives and focus/audience but now with the switch they on themselves are also in an uprising again and i am expecting them to boost and hype it even more with an upcoming new switch model.

Yeah I always say this. This gen ps4 didn't have major momentum leading into it or a massive subscriber base subbing to ps plus. Next gen ps5 will be coming off the second most successful console ever so if they play their cards right that will benefit it. 

 

Next year may be Nintendo's, though. PS4 will eventually sell less and less, while customers that already own PS4/XB1 will be having a go with NSW.

With PS5 coming out, NSW's fad will start to slow down as consumers go to the next generation of consoles.



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My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


MasonADC on 17 December 2018
0D0 said:
Kerotan said:

Yeah I always say this. This gen ps4 didn't have major momentum leading into it or a massive subscriber base subbing to ps plus. Next gen ps5 will be coming off the second most successful console ever so if they play their cards right that will benefit it. 

 

Next year may be Nintendo's, though. PS4 will eventually sell less and less, while customers that already own PS4/XB1 will be having a go with NSW.

With PS5 coming out, NSW's fad will start to slow down as consumers go to the next generation of consoles.

"Fad" lol



Amnesia on 17 December 2018

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Last edited by Amnesia - on 17 December 2018

DonFerrari on 17 December 2018
Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

That is how grown-ups bets.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

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Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Supermario28 on 17 December 2018
Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Basically if Nintendo can close this 7% gap (33%-26%) in the next 5 weeks, it's a done deal for 20mil. I can't see how Switch could sell less in Q4 2018 than Q4 2017.

Smash is like a second black friday for Nintendo. Next 2 weeks are crucial to understand if they'll make it. With Cyber Monday and Smash release numbers.



Amnesia on 17 December 2018
Supermario28 said:
Amnesia said:

I have added the 2017 Q4 to see the whole curve : it needs to be ~33% higher than the final spot of the blue curve (15,06M --> 20M) by March 30th 2019.

It is already 26% higher by today (8,12M from 6,42M). It is done. I will put half of my money on Nintendo Share, if they confirm 20M the share will explode.

Basically if Nintendo can close this 7% gap (33%-26%) in the next 5 weeks, it's a done deal for 20mil. I can't see how Switch could sell less in Q4 2018 than Q4 2017.

Smash is like a second black friday for Nintendo. Next 2 weeks are crucial to understand if they'll make it. With Cyber Monday and Smash release numbers.

Like EVERYTHING else, when everybody notice and admit something, it means that it is too late to make money...I would invest now for Nintendo Share, once the numbers of Smash will fall, the share will have jumped already and the opportunity to make a high profit will be done already. By just UK and Japan numbers we already know that Smash WW result will be insane.



polofresco on 18 December 2018

Did some big adjustment just happens?



Alby_da_Wolf on 18 December 2018

Great boost WoW and YoY for NS, both in USA and WW. XBOne has a decent YoY boost and obviously an excellent WoW one, and it's second again in USA, but it's not enough to keep the second place WW it had last year, this year NS is too strong. PS4 has a small drop YoY WW, but a small boost YoY in USA and it's still first WW by a large margin, but much smaller than the previous BF. Anyway, things go very well for Sony and Ninty and more than decently for MS, no need at all for Sony to rush PS5 launch, the only thing PS4 really needs is better sales in Japan (although its current Japan sales aren't even vaguely as bad as XBOne ones).



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Nate4Drake on 18 December 2018
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Great boost WoW and YoY for NS, both in USA and WW. XBOne has a decent YoY boost and obviously an excellent WoW one, and it's second again in USA, but it's not enough to keep the second place WW it had last year, this year NS is too strong. PS4 has a small drop YoY WW, but a small boost YoY in USA and it's still first WW by a large margin, but much smaller than the previous BF. Anyway, things go very well for Sony and Ninty and more than decently for MS, no need at all for Sony to rush PS5 launch, the only thing PS4 really needs is better sales in Japan (although its current Japan sales aren't even vaguely as bad as XBOne ones).

Yep.

 Japan is a "special market", not easy to capture the attention of Japanese.   They don't care about 4K, or massive power and teraflops, or spectacular graphics like God of War, Forza Horizon4, etc.  They prefer to play their puzzle-games, sexy games, their j-rpg, and sure they prefer cool little lovely hardware like Switch, which is also portable. How to blame them ?

 On the other hand, it appears that both Sony and MS don't care that much, focusing 95% on the West, and this is the result.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

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GameAnalyser on 18 December 2018
Nate4Drake said:
Alby_da_Wolf said:
Great boost WoW and YoY for NS, both in USA and WW. XBOne has a decent YoY boost and obviously an excellent WoW one, and it's second again in USA, but it's not enough to keep the second place WW it had last year, this year NS is too strong. PS4 has a small drop YoY WW, but a small boost YoY in USA and it's still first WW by a large margin, but much smaller than the previous BF. Anyway, things go very well for Sony and Ninty and more than decently for MS, no need at all for Sony to rush PS5 launch, the only thing PS4 really needs is better sales in Japan (although its current Japan sales aren't even vaguely as bad as XBOne ones).

Yep.

 Japan is a "special market", not easy to capture the attention of Japanese.   They don't care about 4K, or massive power and teraflops, or spectacular graphics like God of War, Forza Horizon4, etc.  They prefer to play their puzzle-games, sexy games, their j-rpg, and sure they prefer cool little lovely hardware like Switch, which is also portable. How to blame them ?

 On the other hand, it appears that both Sony and MS don't care that much, focusing 95% on the West, and this is the result.

It's a little hard to appease all the markets in the same way. I guess it's doing just fine...maybe more j-rpgs needed.