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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2018 Thread

Intrinsic said:
PAOerfulone said:
Matching the 3DS is the absolute bare minimum of the Switch.

My Switch LTD predictions:

FY 2017: 2.74m
FY 2018: 15.05m (17.79m)
FY 2019: 19m (36.79m)
FY 2020: 21m (57.79m) - Animal Crossing, Pokemon Gen 8, price cut/hardware revision to $250. Peak year.
FY 2021: 16m (73.79m) - MP4, Bayo 3, Pokemon Gen 4 remakes, growing 3rd party support.
FY 2022: 12m (85.79m) - hardware revision/price cut to $200.
FY 2023: 11m (96.79m) - Pokemon Gen 9 in November, NS2 Launch in March.
FY 2024: 8m (104.79m) - hardware revision/price cut to $150.
FY 2025: 4m (108.79m)
FY 2026: 1.21m (110m)
FY 2027: 0.30m (110.30m) - Discontinuation
FY 2028: 0.03m (110.33m) - Final year on the market.

Americas: ~44 million
Europe: ~27 million
Japan: ~27 million
Others: ~12 million

Unrealistic if you ask me. The jumps and drops are too much. Increasing by 4M from 15M to 19M, then anther 3M increase from 19M to 21M then  massive 5M drop from 21M to 16M........... nope, sales just don't work like that.

Yes. Sales work just like that. 



"Every day I look in the mirror and ask myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?". If the answer is no for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something"

Steve Jobs

wombat123 said:
zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

My opinion is that it's only acceptable to up your predictions if it isn't obvious that you're going to be wrong.

I was of the impression that admitting you will be wrong and upping your predictions is only acceptable when its obvious you will be wrong. As long as you admit it though.

I don't get what the issue here is though..... I made a prediction 3 months before the machine even was released.... changed it a year later. You guys are acting like I am the only one that did this. No one expected the switch to do this well back then. There were even predictions from people saying 25M - 75M.

And my reasons cited were price and lack of third parties. Those are the same reasons I am still holding onto till this day.



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Doesn't that just go to show I adjust predictions as the market changes. And I literally did double my initial prediction after its first year on the market. And I had admitted to doing so in this same thread. I could have sworn my original prediction was 50M though.

In all fairness just last november nearly everyone were predicting some sort of neck and neck race between the NS and PS4 and some even had the NS winning. Only one person on this site got it right.

Cool, you upped your prediction when it was painfully clear you were wrong, is that supposed to made your new estimate more credible?

What does your 2nd paragraph have to do with anything?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

Doesn't that just go to show I adjust predictions as the market changes. And I literally did double my initial prediction after its first year on the market. And I had admitted to doing so in this same thread. I could have sworn my original prediction was 50M though.

In all fairness just last november nearly everyone were predicting some sort of neck and neck race between the NS and PS4 and some even had the NS winning. Only one person on this site got it right.

Cool, you upped your prediction when it was painfully clear you were wrong, is that supposed to made your new estimate more credible?

What does your 2nd paragraph have to do with anything?

Dude...... its a prediction. We aren't getting paid for this. I made a prediction based on how thins were before the console even released. It ended up being more successful than I foresaw. I changed my prediction. Doubled my original tally, admitted that it has been more successful.

This prediction isn't any more or less credible than the last one. Why? because its just a prediction, based on nothing but my opinion which is based on my own interpretation of the facts.

And what that second paragraph has to do with anything is that at the time no one really could know how well the NS was going to do. Hell if you really want t dig into my post history there are multiple times that I kept insisting that we have t wait a year at least before any real predictions can be made. 

I at least admitted i was wrong, as opposed to run away from the site or act like I never made such a prediction. Even in this thread I had referenced my previous much lower prediction. Considering how long ago it as though I just forgot I said 35M - 40M as opposed to 40M-50M. But I am sure if i did through my post history i said something like that too.

Funny enough here is one from feb this year and a reply to you.

Intrinsic said: 
zorg1000 said: 

What about 3DS?

Read what he said..... and then look at the 3DS. in 7yrs its basically sold 70M+. Outside the Wii nintendo hasnt ever had a 100M selling home console and that also took almost 7yrs too. So the only historical evidence to use and back the switchs rapid rise to 100M are its handhelds and its last one didnt do 100M in under 6yrs. Its still at 70M+.

Long and short of it is that all we have to go on right now for the Switch is how well its selling right now. Its the first time we are seeing a console like it on the market. Its an unknown entity. Some can say it will sell as well as the wii (best selling console), some come say it will sell as well as the 3ds (most recent best selling handheld) and some will say it will do as well as both combined......

I tend to think it will be somewhere in between.

Last edited by Intrinsic - on 18 December 2018

p0isonparadise said:
Intrinsic said:

My own personal estimate fr the NS was originally 50M. 

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

 

zorg1000 said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Cool, you upped your prediction when it was painfully clear you were wrong, is that supposed to made your new estimate more credible?

What does your 2nd paragraph have to do with anything?

Dude...... its a prediction. We aren't getting paid for this. I made a prediction based on how thins were before the console even released. It ended up being more successful than I foresaw. I changed my prediction. Doubled my original tally, admitted that it has been more successful.

This prediction isn't any more or less credible than the last one. Why? because its just a prediction, based on nothing but my opinion which is based on my own interpretation of the facts.

And what that second paragraph has to do with anything is that at the time no one really could know how well the NS was going to do. Hell if you really want t dig into my post history there are multiple times that I kept insisting that we have t wait a year at least before any real predictions can be made. 

I at least admitted i was wrong, as opposed to run away from the site or act like I never made such a prediction. Even in this thread I had referenced my previous much lower prediction. Considering how long ago it as though I just forgot I said 35M - 40M as opposed to 40M-50M. But I am sure if i did through my post history i said something like that too.

Funny enough here is one from feb this year and a reply to you.

Intrinsic said: 

Read what he said..... and then look at the 3DS. in 7yrs its basically sold 70M+. Outside the Wii nintendo hasnt ever had a 100M selling home console and that also took almost 7yrs too. So the only historical evidence to use and back the switchs rapid rise to 100M are its handhelds and its last one didnt do 100M in under 6yrs. Its still at 70M+.

Long and short of it is that all we have to go on right now for the Switch is how well its selling right now. Its the first time we are seeing a console like it on the market. Its an unknown entity. Some can say it will sell as well as the wii (best selling console), some come say it will sell as well as the 3ds (most recent best selling handheld) and some will say it will do as well as both combined......

I tend to think it will be somewhere in between.

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
p0isonparadise said:

It wasn't. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8250033

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

What a blast from the past. 

 

zorg1000 said:

So he went from 35-40m to 70-80m, a 100% increase.........ya I dont think anyone should take Intrinsic seriously when it comes to predicting Switch sales.

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

Naaa man thats not how this works. They wouldn't be saying anything if i predicted 140M for the switch. And all thse that predicted the switch would outsell the PS4 this year have also somehow gone silent. And the funny thing is that as early as feb this year I had already changed my initial "pre release" prediction.



DonFerrari said:

I would incentive you to go on WiiU predictions thread and pick every single poster that predicted over 15M and list then for these 2 fine folks to evaluate.

Lol.... haven`t got that kinda energy. Don't have anything to prove t them anyways.



DonFerrari said:

Are you both lambasting and mocking people who predicted over 100M for Switch as well??? Perhaps 250M?

100 million? No. 250 million? Get a sense of humor, Don. 



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

Cool, you upped your prediction when it was painfully clear you were wrong, is that supposed to made your new estimate more credible?

What does your 2nd paragraph have to do with anything?

Dude...... its a prediction. We aren't getting paid for this. I made a prediction based on how thins were before the console even released. It ended up being more successful than I foresaw. I changed my prediction. Doubled my original tally, admitted that it has been more successful.

This prediction isn't any more or less credible than the last one. Why? because its just a prediction, based on nothing but my opinion which is based on my own interpretation of the facts.

And what that second paragraph has to do with anything is that at the time no one really could know how well the NS was going to do. Hell if you really want t dig into my post history there are multiple times that I kept insisting that we have t wait a year at least before any real predictions can be made. 

I at least admitted i was wrong, as opposed to run away from the site or act like I never made such a prediction. Even in this thread I had referenced my previous much lower prediction. Considering how long ago it as though I just forgot I said 35M - 40M as opposed to 40M-50M. But I am sure if i did through my post history i said something like that too.

I get that but you were the one who said, "Doesn't that just go to show I adjust predictions as the market changes" as if I should commend you for changing a bad prediction once it's clear it wont happen.

 

And dont even start with the whole "nobody could tell it would be a success" argument because that's not true. As far back as 2014, myself and others talked about how a potential unified platform that consolidated their handheld and home console markets would be a big success with a minimum of 3DS level sales.


Last edited by zorg1000 - on 18 December 2018

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.