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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Is LABO going to explode this holiday?

TheMisterManGuy said:
outlawauron said:

I would see a more detailed breakdown like we have for Japan, because we know that it still hasn't sold through its initial Japanese shipment. While the expectations (and marketing push from Nintendo) shifted with the third Labo kit, it's not matching up with initial expectations.

Nintendo shipped around 200k of the Variety Kit, and around 80k or so of the Robot Kit at launch. Not sure what the shipments for the Vehicle Kit were, but considering it was greatly reduced, I'm betting it's around 50k. I know for sure that the Variety Kit has sold through nearly it's entire first shipment so far, and the Vehicle Kit has sold through the majority of its shipments as well

According to Famitsu Top 30:

26./00. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01: Variety Kit (Nintendo) {2018.04.20} (¥6.980) - 2.462 / 212.754 <80-100%> 

27./00. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 03: Drive Kit (Nintendo) {2018.09.14} (¥6.980) - 2.453 / 38.003 <60-80%> 

Nintendo also hasn't been marketing Labo as much as you think. In fact, they've kept it completely almost entirely isolated from the rest of their Switch marketing efforts so far (it wasn't in any Directs, wasn't at E3, and there hasn't been many ads for it). They also mentioned how they want this to be a product that sells for a long time, so I don't think they're placing all their eggs in the Holiday basket for it. 

As for where 1 million came from, all kits combined sold 1.39 million as of July 31st according to Nintendo. 

Shipped =/= sold for the 30th time on this thread alone.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Nintendo's IR listed for the April-Jun quarter that LABO shipped 1.39 million, for the Jul-Sep quarter, the last game of the top 10 for Switch is Xenoblade at 1.5 million. So for three months you've got ~zero shipment growth for LABO meaning that they are still selling thru their initial run...and that includes the Vehicle kit released Sept 14th. For October, we have seen no indication of movement base on Japan's Media Create, U.S. NPD or Europe's GFK data and for November, no Media Create or GFK and we'll find out soon for NPD. Its pretty safe to say that they are still going thru their initial shipment and even if they sell, companies are not going to order more due to the poor sales over the course of the year. While the idea is great, its a product that doesn't resonate with users



DonFerrari said:

Shipped =/= sold for the 30th time on this thread alone.

Except Nintendo own words say sold. 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180731e.pdf

"Sales of Nintendo Labo series overall reached 1.39 million units."

Train wreck said:

Nintendo's IR listed for the April-Jun quarter that LABO shipped 1.39 million, for the Jul-Sep quarter, the last game of the top 10 for Switch is Xenoblade at 1.5 million. So for three months you've got ~zero shipment growth for LABO meaning that they are still selling thru their initial run...and that includes the Vehicle kit released Sept 14th. For October, we have seen no indication of movement base on Japan's Media Create, U.S. NPD or Europe's GFK data and for November, no Media Create or GFK and we'll find out soon for NPD. Its pretty safe to say that they are still going thru their initial shipment and even if they sell, companies are not going to order more due to the poor sales over the course of the year. While the idea is great, its a product that doesn't resonate with users

The Variety Kit sold through damn near its entire first shipment in Japan, Vehicle Kit also sold through most of its initial shipment as well (remember, the Vehicle Kit had a significantly reduced shipment). And so far, there hasn't been any signs of it hitting bomba bins or clearance, so its safe to say that retailers understand what kind of product this is. And sales did grow during November and December. The Variety Kit returned to the Top 50 according to Media Create, and the Vehicle Kit returned to the Top 20 last week. So Nintendo is right that sales did grow during the holidays. 



TheMisterManGuy said:
outlawauron said:

I would see a more detailed breakdown like we have for Japan, because we know that it still hasn't sold through its initial Japanese shipment. While the expectations (and marketing push from Nintendo) shifted with the third Labo kit, it's not matching up with initial expectations.

Nintendo shipped around 200k of the Variety Kit, and around 80k or so of the Robot Kit at launch. Not sure what the shipments for the Vehicle Kit were, but considering it was greatly reduced, I'm betting it's around 50k. I know for sure that the Variety Kit has sold through nearly it's entire first shipment so far, and the Vehicle Kit has sold through the majority of its shipments as well

According to Famitsu Top 30:

26./00. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01: Variety Kit (Nintendo) {2018.04.20} (¥6.980) - 2.462 / 212.754 <80-100%> 

27./00. [NSW] Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 03: Drive Kit (Nintendo) {2018.09.14} (¥6.980) - 2.453 / 38.003 <60-80%> 

Nintendo also hasn't been marketing Labo as much as you think. In fact, they've kept it completely almost entirely isolated from the rest of their Switch marketing efforts so far (it wasn't in any Directs, wasn't at E3, and there hasn't been many ads for it). They also mentioned how they want this to be a product that sells for a long time, so I don't think they're placing all their eggs in the Holiday basket for it. 

As for where 1 million came from, all kits combined sold 1.39 million as of July 31st according to Nintendo. 

First week shipment I have seen for the Variety Kit is 280k, not 200k.

That's what I was operating my post off of.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Train wreck said:

Nintendo's IR listed for the April-Jun quarter that LABO shipped 1.39 million, for the Jul-Sep quarter, the last game of the top 10 for Switch is Xenoblade at 1.5 million. So for three months you've got ~zero shipment growth for LABO meaning that they are still selling thru their initial run...and that includes the Vehicle kit released Sept 14th. For October, we have seen no indication of movement base on Japan's Media Create, U.S. NPD or Europe's GFK data and for November, no Media Create or GFK and we'll find out soon for NPD. Its pretty safe to say that they are still going thru their initial shipment and even if they sell, companies are not going to order more due to the poor sales over the course of the year. While the idea is great, its a product that doesn't resonate with users

I liked the concept, but execution and price for a demo with cardboard isn't attractive.

Shadow1980 said:
I certainly hope not. Can you imagine the injuries and potential lawsuits that would happen if a bunch of Labos started to spontaneously detonate? It's be terrible.

You made me laugh.

TheMisterManGuy said:
DonFerrari said:

Shipped =/= sold for the 30th time on this thread alone.

Except Nintendo own words say sold. 

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180731e.pdf

"Sales of Nintendo Labo series overall reached 1.39 million units."

Train wreck said:

Nintendo's IR listed for the April-Jun quarter that LABO shipped 1.39 million, for the Jul-Sep quarter, the last game of the top 10 for Switch is Xenoblade at 1.5 million. So for three months you've got ~zero shipment growth for LABO meaning that they are still selling thru their initial run...and that includes the Vehicle kit released Sept 14th. For October, we have seen no indication of movement base on Japan's Media Create, U.S. NPD or Europe's GFK data and for November, no Media Create or GFK and we'll find out soon for NPD. Its pretty safe to say that they are still going thru their initial shipment and even if they sell, companies are not going to order more due to the poor sales over the course of the year. While the idea is great, its a product that doesn't resonate with users

The Variety Kit sold through damn near its entire first shipment in Japan, Vehicle Kit also sold through most of its initial shipment as well (remember, the Vehicle Kit had a significantly reduced shipment). And so far, there hasn't been any signs of it hitting bomba bins or clearance, so its safe to say that retailers understand what kind of product this is. And sales did grow during November and December. The Variety Kit returned to the Top 50 according to Media Create, and the Vehicle Kit returned to the Top 20 last week. So Nintendo is right that sales did grow during the holidays. 

So you have been in VGC for 5 years and still haven't learn that companies say sold in meaning sold to retailers which is shipped? When they want to say they are sold through to end customers they are very explicit and say it is an estimation and give source/timebase because they can never be sure of it. And they giving incorrect numbers open liabilities for lawsuit.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

outlawauron said:

First week shipment I have seen for the Variety Kit is 280k, not 200k.

That's what I was operating my post off of.

That can't be right. That would mean that that Nintendo only shipped 20k of the Robot Kit, which isn't really possible since Nintendo shipped 300k total of the first Labo wave (Variety and Robot) in Japan, and even the Robot Kit is well over 20k in sales. The Vehicle Kit had a greatly reduced shipment, which leads me to believe that it's numbers were roughly in the 50k range. 

DonFerrari said:

So you have been in VGC for 5 years and still haven't learn that companies say sold in meaning sold to retailers which is shipped? When they want to say they are sold through to end customers they are very explicit and say it is an estimation and give source/timebase because they can never be sure of it. And they giving incorrect numbers open liabilities for lawsuit.

VGChartz isn't the most reliable source for determining a game's sales, especially when said game just came out. So all we have to go by is the regional sales charts, and what numbers the company gives us. So if Nintendo said Labo has sold 1.39 million units worldwide, that's all the data we really have for now. 



TheMisterManGuy said:
outlawauron said:

First week shipment I have seen for the Variety Kit is 280k, not 200k.

That's what I was operating my post off of.

That can't be right. That would mean that that Nintendo only shipped 20k of the Robot Kit, which isn't really possible since Nintendo shipped 300k total of the first Labo wave (Variety and Robot) in Japan, and even the Robot Kit is well over 20k in sales. The Vehicle Kit had a greatly reduced shipment, which leads me to believe that it's numbers were roughly in the 50k range. 

DonFerrari said:

So you have been in VGC for 5 years and still haven't learn that companies say sold in meaning sold to retailers which is shipped? When they want to say they are sold through to end customers they are very explicit and say it is an estimation and give source/timebase because they can never be sure of it. And they giving incorrect numbers open liabilities for lawsuit.

VGChartz isn't the most reliable source for determining a game's sales, especially when said game just came out. So all we have to go by is the regional sales charts, and what numbers the company gives us. So if Nintendo said Labo has sold 1.39 million units worldwide, that's all the data we really have for now. 

No problem. As long as you call it shipped instead of sold I'm fine with the 1.39 (which is basically initial shipment).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Shadow1980 said:

I certainly hope not. Can you imagine the injuries and potential lawsuits that would happen if a bunch of Labos started to spontaneously detonate? It'd be terrible.

ROTFL!   



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


outlawauron said:
No it's not. Nintendo was due for a dud after Switch has done so well. Let it die in peace.

I read that like Nintendo deserved a failure because the Switch is a success, like if that was some sort of logical consequence. I really hope that this wasn't what you wanted to say since that would be a terribly dumb thing to say.



GoOnKid said:
outlawauron said:
No it's not. Nintendo was due for a dud after Switch has done so well. Let it die in peace.

I read that like Nintendo deserved a failure because the Switch is a success, like if that was some sort of logical consequence. I really hope that this wasn't what you wanted to say since that would be a terribly dumb thing to say.

No, not at all. It was just something that was bound to happen by pure statistical likelihood. No matter how on top of things you are, not everything you have is gold. Not everything Sony has done for PS4 has been amazing, they've had a few duds. It just happens.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.