SSBU: Predict Dec NPD Sales (US)! (Will it Break the Record?)

AngryLittleAlchemist

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 11 December 2018

XD84 said:
I gave it some thought. I think it has a good shot to top this list out of following reasons:
2. In December there are less competition than in November. Therefore the game is getting a lot of attention.

But but but ....

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zorg1000 on 11 December 2018

XD84 said:
I gave it some thought. I think it has a good shot to top this list out of following reasons:
1. It was published at the beginning of the month.
2. In December there are less competition than in November. Therefore the game is getting a lot of attention.
3. Holiday season
4. Those who got a Switch for Christmas without Smash will consider to get the game ASAP.

Early insider reports say its selling about twice as much as Pokemon Let's Go (which did ~1.5 million in 10 days) so doing over 3.3 million in 30 days seems likely.

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colafitte

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colafitte on 11 December 2018

Miyamotoo said:

colafitte said:
People should consider that not every game on that list had the same numbers of days to reach that number. GOW only had a few days while Spiderman, like Smash had almost all the month to reach that number

Considering that, Ultimate is going to destroy the record...., i expect 4M+ in USA alone in December.

I agree, but also people need to be aware of install basis also, GoW and Spiderman are launched on much higher install base than Smash Ultimate did.

If you ask me, install base is the most overrated thing in sales discussions. I think people that buy a Nintendo console buy for the same games (Mario, Kart, Zelda, etc...) always and when a Smash comes, all the people that wants the game already have a console or is buying the console for the game. That's why Smash is probably going to be the best selling Switch game at launch in USA even when the gen is over, you'll see....

Last edited by colafitte - on 11 December 2018

Miyamotoo

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Miyamotoo on 11 December 2018

colafitte said:

Miyamotoo said:

I agree, but also people need to be aware of install basis also, GoW and Spiderman are launched on much higher install base than Smash Ultimate did.

If you ask me, install base is the most overrated thing in sales discussions. I think people that buy a Nintendo console buy for the same games (Mario, Kart, Zelda, etc...) always and when a Smash comes, all the people that wants the game already have a console or is buying the console for the game. That's why Smash is probably going to be the best selling Switch game at launch in USA even when the gen is over, you'll see....

But is not same if Smash Bros Ultimate is launched on Switch that has install base 10m, 15m or 20m. Same could be said for any platform or any game.

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AJNShelton on 11 December 2018

It sold more than 1 million in Japan for the first days so I'm pretty sure it will do more than 3 millions

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colafitte on 11 December 2018

Miyamotoo said:

colafitte said:

If you ask me, install base is the most overrated thing in sales discussions. I think people that buy a Nintendo console buy for the same games (Mario, Kart, Zelda, etc...) always and when a Smash comes, all the people that wants the game already have a console or is buying the console for the game. That's why Smash is probably going to be the best selling Switch game at launch in USA even when the gen is over, you'll see....

But is not same if Smash Bros Ultimate is launched on Switch that has install base 10m, 15m or 20m. Same could be said for any platform or any game.

Yes, of course you're right. Switch right now is around 8-9M sold in USA, so yes, of course it still matters. For a moment i forgot how little still Switch has sold in USA yet.

But still, if Switch had 20M units sold in USA, Smash Ultimate would not sell 2x better...,that's what i meant.