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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Can NSMBUD sell 10 million?

Yea it will clearly outsell the Wii U version. Every Switch port from Wii U is doing that, for obvious reasons. I wouldn't expect NSMBU to defy the trend and sell less.



DélioPT said:
zorg1000 said:

Like I said, apples to oranges.

You are comparing games like Skyrim & Batman Arkham which were on PS3/360/PC so something like an install base over 200 million vs a game on a 13 million install base.

The sales potential of games like Skyrim & Batman were not limited in any significant way by the platforms they released on so it makes sense for ports of them to sell a fraction of the original release.

This is not the same for Wii U ports, those games did not sell to their full potential because they were on a failed platform and is why we are seeing basically every Wii U port on Switch sell better than the original release.

NSMBU Deluxe might not hit 10 million but I feel pretty positive that it will outsell the Wii U version.

It's true that those games weren't limited by HW sales, but that doesn't mean they couldn't at least repeat those numbers.
That didn't happen because, despite their appeal, they couldn't muster enough of it, to repeat the feat or even surpass it. And we are talking about games that had a really good word of mouth and received a lot of praise.

In regard to NSMB U, i don't really see it as being held back by HW sales.
If that was case, then why didn't it sell like MK8 or vice versa?

For example: SSB, a game that was never a match for the sales potential of the NSMB series, and, which came out in 2014, managed to almost sell as much as NSMB U. Despite the latter having two more years in the market.

I'm open to a surprise and the game outselling the original. But, is it "proven" that the game will clearly outsell the original because it was held back on Wii U? I don't see a reason to be so certain of that.

Are you really still dont realise that your points don't have any logic!? Fact that MK8 sold better than any other Wii U game cant mean in any case that other Wii U games wasnt held back by HW sales.

Again another point that don't make sense, point that NSMB on Wii U sold less than past consoles or that SSB sold almost same like NSMBU doesnt mean that NSMBU wouldn't sell better higher install base or that it want sell better on Switch than it did on Wii U.

Almost every Wii U port already sold better on Switch or is on track to do that, so there is little reason to doubt that will be same for NSMBU or any other Wii U port on Switch.

Also comparing sales of games from PS3 to PS4 is totally illogical when you have plenty of examples on platform that's actually theam of discussion.

 

I am still not sure are you aware of your posts, or you doing all that on purpose just to push your opinion even if its obvious you are wrong and what you writing doesn't make sense.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 21 September 2018

zorg1000 said:
DélioPT said:

 

It's very rare that late ports of successful games on successful platforms match the initial release. Skyrim, Batman Arkham or almost any previous gen port/remaster (GTAV is an anomaly) were never going to sell as much on PS4/XBO as they did on PS3/360. Do you know why? Almost everybody who was interested in them already played them.

You are using a logical fallacy, just because it didnt sell as much as MK8 (best selling game on the console) does not mean it wasnt held back. Donkey Kong sold like 1/8th the amount of MK8 on Wii U and it's pretty clear it was held back considering that the Switch version outsold the Wii U version's lifetime sales in just 2 months while costing more.

Why does it matter that it released later? They both had the same ~13.5 million people to sell to. One released earlier, the other released when the install base was higher, they cancel out.

Obviously there is no way of knowing until it releases and we see the sales but it's a pretty safe bet, like I said already pretty much every Wii U port on Switch has either already outsold the original or on track to do so which gives little reason to expect a popular IP lke 2D Mario to not do the same.

"Do you know why? Almost everybody who was interested in them already played them."
Although i didn't write this, i agree.

No, it doesn't mean that NSMB U wasn't held back. You are right. But Smash, although presentting lower sales, sold almost as much as NSMB U. If the NSMBU game was greatly held back, it would have sold better, considering that the series usually sees sales well above the Smash series.


But, Switch sales for DK don't necessarily prove it was held back by Wii U sales. Given the amount of Switch consoles sold by the time it was released vs the 13.5 million consoles for the Wii U version, how much better did it actually sell?
Even if it was the same, the feeling surrounding both consoles were completely different. And that is always relevant.

Some time ago i pointed out to another use that with similar userbases (a mistake i made above), some wii u ports did not perform equal or better. They were either a bit below or below.
I'm talking about games like Pokken and Leco City Undercover.

Also, just because some Wii U games did perform better - assuming they did it on the same userbase the Wii U had - it doesn't necessarily mean that it would sell 10 million.
I didn't say it wouldn't sell better than the original. I said i wasn't sure it could reach those numbers.




Miyamotoo said:
DélioPT said:

It's true that those games weren't limited by HW sales, but that doesn't mean they couldn't at least repeat those numbers.
That didn't happen because, despite their appeal, they couldn't muster enough of it, to repeat the feat or even surpass it. And we are talking about games that had a really good word of mouth and received a lot of praise.

In regard to NSMB U, i don't really see it as being held back by HW sales.
If that was case, then why didn't it sell like MK8 or vice versa?

For example: SSB, a game that was never a match for the sales potential of the NSMB series, and, which came out in 2014, managed to almost sell as much as NSMB U. Despite the latter having two more years in the market.

I'm open to a surprise and the game outselling the original. But, is it "proven" that the game will clearly outsell the original because it was held back on Wii U? I don't see a reason to be so certain of that.

Are you really still dont realise that your points don't have any logic!? Fact that MK8 sold better than any other Wii U game cant mean in any case that other Wii U games wasnt held back by HW sales.

Again another point that don't make sense, point that NSMB on Wii U sold less than past consoles or that SSB sold almost same like NSMBU doesnt mean that NSMBU wouldn't sell better higher install base or that it want sell better on Switch than it did on Wii U.

Every Wii U port already sold better on Switch or is on track to do that, so there is little reason to doubt that will be same for NSMBU or any other Wii U port on Switch.

Also comparing sales of games from PS3 to PS4 is totally illogical when you have plenty of examples on platform that's actually team of discussion.

 

I am still not sure are you aware of your posts, or you doing all that on purpose just to push your opinion even if its obvious you are wrong and what you writing doesn't make sense.

Although one game sales don't necessarily say anything about the other, it does paint a picture.
Smash selling so close to NSMBU shows that the latter wasn't necessarily held back. And let's not forget, Wii U sales for Smash WERE held back by the 3ds version.

Given the exact userbase, not every wii u port performed better or even the same. 
I showed you this before.

Using PS3 to PS4 is more than a valid stance. 
Why shouldn't it be used? Because it shows that even great games, when ported to the same sized userbase, they don't necessarily better?



DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

Are you really still dont realise that your points don't have any logic!? Fact that MK8 sold better than any other Wii U game cant mean in any case that other Wii U games wasnt held back by HW sales.

Again another point that don't make sense, point that NSMB on Wii U sold less than past consoles or that SSB sold almost same like NSMBU doesnt mean that NSMBU wouldn't sell better higher install base or that it want sell better on Switch than it did on Wii U.

Every Wii U port already sold better on Switch or is on track to do that, so there is little reason to doubt that will be same for NSMBU or any other Wii U port on Switch.

Also comparing sales of games from PS3 to PS4 is totally illogical when you have plenty of examples on platform that's actually team of discussion.

 

I am still not sure are you aware of your posts, or you doing all that on purpose just to push your opinion even if its obvious you are wrong and what you writing doesn't make sense.

Although one game sales don't necessarily say anything about the other, it does paint a picture.
Smash selling so close to NSMBU shows that the latter wasn't necessarily held back. And let's not forget, Wii U sales for Smash WERE held back by the 3ds version.

Given the exact userbase, not every wii u port performed better or even the same. 
I showed you this before.

Using PS3 to PS4 is more than a valid stance. 
Why shouldn't it be used? Because it shows that even great games, when ported to the same sized userbase, they don't necessarily better?

When you have failed install base with only 13m users, you can easily say that every game is hold back buy HW sales, there is reason why almost every port alredy sold. Smash sales selling close to NSMBU dont have anuthing with point some some game is hold back buy HW sales, almost certain both games were holding back buy HW sales.

Almost every Wii U port already sold better is on pace to sell better on Switch, and espacily when we talking about stronger Nintendo IPs.

No its not if you have plenty of Wii U to Switch ports, why you would use PS3 to PS4 when we have Wii U to Switch ports, it dont make sense at all. Not just we talking about totally different platforms but we talking in sutiont where we have failed console with very limited install base.



Miyamotoo said:
DélioPT said:

A

When you have failed install base with only 13m users, you can easily say that every game is hold back buy HW sales, there is reason why almost every port alredy sold. Smash sales selling close to NSMBU dont have anuthing with point some some game is hold back buy HW sales, almost certain both games were holding back buy HW sales.

Almost every Wii U port already sold better is on pace to sell better on Switch, and espacily when we talking about stronger Nintendo IPs.

No its not if you have plenty of Wii U to Switch ports, why you would use PS3 to PS4 when we have Wii U to Switch ports, it dont make sense at all. Not just we talking about totally different platforms but we talking in sutiont where we have failed console with very limited install base.

If your userbase is 100M it will surely do better. More or less, but it will.

Let's imagine that Smash was only out for Wii U and that it sold at least one more million (that would not be the case, but ok).
In that scenario, how did a game like Smash, that never reached the heights of popularity of the NSMB series, outsold it?
Simple explanation: gamers didn't care as much for NSMB U. In other words, the game wasn't that attractive to begin with.
Even if you assume both were held back, given the appeal of both series, NSMBU should have clearly outsold Smash.

What matters is seeing if, on an equal userbase, behaviours changed. And in some cases (Pokken, LEgo City U, etc.) it changed for worse.
Why? Because there were people who did not want to play them again and new buyers didn't care enough to replace the lost ones of the original.

So what? I just tried to show that you can't automatically assume that it will happen to every single game.

Because it's not a matter of this or that platform? This is about, again, consumer behaviour.
Skyrim, which sold a lot on a sucessful console still sold way less on a console that has been more successful.



DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

Are you really still dont realise that your points don't have any logic!? Fact that MK8 sold better than any other Wii U game cant mean in any case that other Wii U games wasnt held back by HW sales.

Again another point that don't make sense, point that NSMB on Wii U sold less than past consoles or that SSB sold almost same like NSMBU doesnt mean that NSMBU wouldn't sell better higher install base or that it want sell better on Switch than it did on Wii U.

Every Wii U port already sold better on Switch or is on track to do that, so there is little reason to doubt that will be same for NSMBU or any other Wii U port on Switch.

Also comparing sales of games from PS3 to PS4 is totally illogical when you have plenty of examples on platform that's actually team of discussion.

 

I am still not sure are you aware of your posts, or you doing all that on purpose just to push your opinion even if its obvious you are wrong and what you writing doesn't make sense.

Although one game sales don't necessarily say anything about the other, it does paint a picture.
Smash selling so close to NSMBU shows that the latter wasn't necessarily held back. And let's not forget, Wii U sales for Smash WERE held back by the 3ds version.

Given the exact userbase, not every wii u port performed better or even the same. 
I showed you this before.

Using PS3 to PS4 is more than a valid stance. 
Why shouldn't it be used? Because it shows that even great games, when ported to the same sized userbase, they don't necessarily better?

Dude you really are not making logical statements. EVERY game on the Wii U was held back, period. Because Wii U only sold 13.5 million copies.

Smash selling close to NSMBU says absolutely nothing about NBMBU not being held back. There is no logic behind that statement. They were both held back, because every game on Wii U was held back. All it likely says is that Smash is more popular among Nintendo hardcore fans, which we can presume were of a higher percentage of Wii U owners than of other Nintendo systems since the system sold so little. While the NSMB series is very popular among hardcore Nintendo fans but is far more popular among the general gaming audience than Smash, which makes sense since a multiplayer platformer is more casual than a fighting game (even a party fighting game like Smash). So what this likely tells us is that NSMBU was MORE held back by the Wii U's userbase than Smash was, while you are for some reason trying to use broken logic to claim the opposite.

And using the PS3 to PS4 makes no sense because we have better data/examples available, specifically other WiiU to Switch ports. Why would you use PS3 to PS4 examples when we have direct comparisons available on other WiiU-to-Switch ports?? Oh, because your opinion doesn't follow the data so you are using broken logic and bad examples to argue your point. And your last statement doesn't even make sense. You are trying to claim that the Switch and Wii U userbase are the same size? What?? PS3:PS4 does not equal WiiU:Switch. Not even close.



DélioPT said:
Miyamotoo said:

When you have failed install base with only 13m users, you can easily say that every game is hold back buy HW sales, there is reason why almost every port alredy sold. Smash sales selling close to NSMBU dont have anuthing with point some some game is hold back buy HW sales, almost certain both games were holding back buy HW sales.

Almost every Wii U port already sold better is on pace to sell better on Switch, and espacily when we talking about stronger Nintendo IPs.

No its not if you have plenty of Wii U to Switch ports, why you would use PS3 to PS4 when we have Wii U to Switch ports, it dont make sense at all. Not just we talking about totally different platforms but we talking in sutiont where we have failed console with very limited install base.

If your userbase is 100M it will surely do better. More or less, but it will.

Let's imagine that Smash was only out for Wii U and that it sold at least one more million (that would not be the case, but ok).
In that scenario, how did a game like Smash, that never reached the heights of popularity of the NSMB series, outsold it?
Simple explanation: gamers didn't care as much for NSMB U. In other words, the game wasn't that attractive to begin with.
Even if you assume both were held back, given the appeal of both series, NSMBU should have clearly outsold Smash.

What matters is seeing if, on an equal userbase, behaviours changed. And in some cases (Pokken, LEgo City U, etc.) it changed for worse.
Why? Because there were people who did not want to play them again and new buyers didn't care enough to replace the lost ones of the original.

So what? I just tried to show that you can't automatically assume that it will happen to every single game. Because it's not a matter of this or that platform? This is about, again, consumer behaviour. Skyrim, which sold a lot on a sucessful console still sold way less on a console that has been more successful.

 

No, every game would done better even if install base is only 20m compared to 13m, not to mentione 100m.

We dont need to imagine anything, every game was hold back buy HW sales on Wii U, period. That doesn't have anything with how much NSMBU sold compared to SMB4, they would both sell better with higher install base.

You do realise that Pokken Tournament already sold better on Switch than it did LT on WiiU, and that game will keep selling. Maybe some Wii U port will not sell better on Switch, but you can bet that huge majority will in any case like 90%.

I already explained why there is no sense at all to gave examples of PS3 to PS4 when you have plenty of examples of platforms we talking about, Wii U to Switch. But that dont goes towers your agenda so you making points that don't make any sense to anyone.

 

Slownenberg said: 
DélioPT said: 

Although one game sales don't necessarily say anything about the other, it does paint a picture.
Smash selling so close to NSMBU shows that the latter wasn't necessarily held back. And let's not forget, Wii U sales for Smash WERE held back by the 3ds version.

Given the exact userbase, not every wii u port performed better or even the same. 
I showed you this before.

Using PS3 to PS4 is more than a valid stance. 
Why shouldn't it be used? Because it shows that even great games, when ported to the same sized userbase, they don't necessarily better?

Dude you really are not making logical statements. EVERY game on the Wii U was held back, period. Because Wii U only sold 13.5 million copies.

Smash selling close to NSMBU says absolutely nothing about NBMBU not being held back. There is no logic behind that statement. They were both held back, because every game on Wii U was held back. All it likely says is that Smash is more popular among Nintendo hardcore fans, which we can presume were of a higher percentage of Wii U owners than of other Nintendo systems since the system sold so little. While the NSMB series is very popular among hardcore Nintendo fans but is far more popular among the general gaming audience than Smash, which makes sense since a multiplayer platformer is more casual than a fighting game (even a party fighting game like Smash). So what this likely tells us is that NSMBU was MORE held back by the Wii U's userbase than Smash was, while you are for some reason trying to use broken logic to claim the opposite.

And using the PS3 to PS4 makes no sense because we have better data/examples available, specifically other WiiU to Switch ports. Why would you use PS3 to PS4 examples when we have direct comparisons available on other WiiU-to-Switch ports?? Oh, because your opinion doesn't follow the data so you are using broken logic and bad examples to argue your point. And your last statement doesn't even make sense. You are trying to claim that the Switch and Wii U userbase are the same size? What?? PS3:PS4 does not equal WiiU:Switch. Not even close.

Basically this.

And whats is worst if you keep discussion with him, he will keep ignoring clear facts and totally logic points while trying to around them and changing his goal posts.



Surely you guys saw my discussion with Delio, thus you should know it's a waste of time, and really there's nothing more that can be said until January, but hey free thread bumps so I ain't complaining!



DélioPT said:
zorg1000 said:

It's very rare that late ports of successful games on successful platforms match the initial release. Skyrim, Batman Arkham or almost any previous gen port/remaster (GTAV is an anomaly) were never going to sell as much on PS4/XBO as they did on PS3/360. Do you know why? Almost everybody who was interested in them already played them.

You are using a logical fallacy, just because it didnt sell as much as MK8 (best selling game on the console) does not mean it wasnt held back. Donkey Kong sold like 1/8th the amount of MK8 on Wii U and it's pretty clear it was held back considering that the Switch version outsold the Wii U version's lifetime sales in just 2 months while costing more.

Why does it matter that it released later? They both had the same ~13.5 million people to sell to. One released earlier, the other released when the install base was higher, they cancel out.

Obviously there is no way of knowing until it releases and we see the sales but it's a pretty safe bet, like I said already pretty much every Wii U port on Switch has either already outsold the original or on track to do so which gives little reason to expect a popular IP lke 2D Mario to not do the same.

"Do you know why? Almost everybody who was interested in them already played them."
Although i didn't write this, i agree.

No, it doesn't mean that NSMB U wasn't held back. You are right. But Smash, although presentting lower sales, sold almost as much as NSMB U. If the NSMBU game was greatly held back, it would have sold better, considering that the series usually sees sales well above the Smash series.


But, Switch sales for DK don't necessarily prove it was held back by Wii U sales. Given the amount of Switch consoles sold by the time it was released vs the 13.5 million consoles for the Wii U version, how much better did it actually sell?
Even if it was the same, the feeling surrounding both consoles were completely different. And that is always relevant.

Some time ago i pointed out to another use that with similar userbases (a mistake i made above), some wii u ports did not perform equal or better. They were either a bit below or below.
I'm talking about games like Pokken and Leco City Undercover.

Also, just because some Wii U games did perform better - assuming they did it on the same userbase the Wii U had - it doesn't necessarily mean that it would sell 10 million.
I didn't say it wouldn't sell better than the original. I said i wasn't sure it could reach those numbers.


I dont really get your Smash Bros point. 3 systems have had both a 2D Mario & Smash Bros game, only Wii had a massive difference between the two so your point is moot.

As for the bolded, that's literally the entire point I'm making. Switch will have a much bigger install base than Wii U so Wii U ports have a lot more potential to sell.

And you're wrong about Pokken, it has already sold more on Switch than it did on Wii U. And maybe you're right about Lego City but I'm talking about Nintendo IP, I guess I should have clarified that.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.