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Forums - Sony Discussion - Sony first Party games sales, A huge leap from PS3 era. ( Entered Ninty Level ) Update: GOW at 10m & Uncharted 4 16M

colafitte on 17 August 2018
MasonADC said:
colafitte said:

To be fair, those U4 numbers were units SOLD, not shipped like Mario Odyssey number you said (11M). I already said too that I think U4 should be around 12M sold. Odyssey should be around 10'5m units SOLD after the last number of shipments. Uncharted 4 will sell a little more but I don't think it will reach 15m. So in my opinion, if Super Mario Odyssey sells "around" 15m like I said, i'm already expecting to have more legs than U4, so that can be 14m (not probably), 15m (amazingly accurate for my part) or even more than 16m (very plausible too). But to reach this numbers SMO has to sell 5-6m more in next years before the next one arrives, that's a lot of legs in my opinion. And the same can be said about BOTW. The only way those games keep the pace of this sales is if there isn't a new 3D mario or new 3D Zelda on Switch, and I'm not betting on that.

If SMO ends up selling 15-16m and BOTW around 13-14m that's already a huge improvement for their respective franchises, but this success doesn't need to translate to each Nintendo game, but hey, I will be glad to be wrong.

3D Mario and Zelda games takes a very long time to make. Will Nintendo go the quick route with a Odyssey 2 or a Majora Mask style Breath of the Wild? I doubt it tbh. I don't think the legs will be cut off to 1 million a year starting next year like you said, especially if they bundle the title and/or put them on Nintendo Selects. 

To be specific, when i said a million a year...(i was too vague on that phrase), i don't mean 1.000.000 sales, i mean a range from 1m to almost 2m on average (and after 2018), so 4-5 million in 3-4 years. Galaxy 2 launched just 3 years after the first one and Skyward Sword 5 years after Twilight Princess. And yes, if Nintendo decides to bundle those games, automatically my prediction becomes a joke, but i don't think Nintendo will do that.



NoCtiS_NoX on 17 August 2018
colafitte said:

Sony is taking notes from Nintendo and Ubisoft. They want the prestige of single player games of the former and the quantity of ambitious IP's to launch every year of the latter. That's very difficult to accomplish, but that's what they're trying to do. They want to have 2 or 3 big hitters for year, so to reach this goal they need at least more than 5 franchises to cycle the launch of the games. 

In 2015 they had The Order 1886 and Bloodborne, in 2016 they had Uncharted 4 and The Last Guardian, in 2017 they had Horizon Zero Dawn, Uncharted TLL and Gran Turismo Sport, in 2018 they're having God of War, Detroit and Spiderman, in 2019 they will probably have Days Gone, Dreams and Ghosts of Tsushima, and if not in 2019, then in 2020 TLOU part II and Death Stranding before launching PS5 alongside probably Horizon 2 or even God of War 2 (complete wishful thinking ). If you're paying attention, each year they have been more ambitious than the year before. One step after another, they're improving each year correcting mistakes and going all in with what works for them.

I honestly do want smaller and original games like in PS2 and PS3 era too. I wish they don't forget to launch the ICOs, Journeys, Jak and Daxters, Slys, Ratchet and Clanks , but I'm not worried about that. They're probably working on it for PS5 right now.

I think 2019 be bigger than 2018.
I disagree with Last of uS II release date it will be released on 2019 as their fall big game.
Days Gone was delayed because they cannot fit it with a heavy hitter games like Spider man,  RDR 2, COD IIII.
I think this was the original plan.

God of War then Detroit then Spider man then Days Gone for Nov. but RDR 2 was delayed and they need to adjust it to a different date
Seem they are on the same open world genre so decided to delay it. 
2019 
GOT  Last of US and Death Stranding and dreams

2020 will be the games that will newly announced this year or the next.



colafitte on 17 August 2018
NoCtiS_NoX said:
colafitte said:

Sony is taking notes from Nintendo and Ubisoft. They want the prestige of single player games of the former and the quantity of ambitious IP's to launch every year of the latter. That's very difficult to accomplish, but that's what they're trying to do. They want to have 2 or 3 big hitters for year, so to reach this goal they need at least more than 5 franchises to cycle the launch of the games. 

In 2015 they had The Order 1886 and Bloodborne, in 2016 they had Uncharted 4 and The Last Guardian, in 2017 they had Horizon Zero Dawn, Uncharted TLL and Gran Turismo Sport, in 2018 they're having God of War, Detroit and Spiderman, in 2019 they will probably have Days Gone, Dreams and Ghosts of Tsushima, and if not in 2019, then in 2020 TLOU part II and Death Stranding before launching PS5 alongside probably Horizon 2 or even God of War 2 (complete wishful thinking ). If you're paying attention, each year they have been more ambitious than the year before. One step after another, they're improving each year correcting mistakes and going all in with what works for them.

I honestly do want smaller and original games like in PS2 and PS3 era too. I wish they don't forget to launch the ICOs, Journeys, Jak and Daxters, Slys, Ratchet and Clanks , but I'm not worried about that. They're probably working on it for PS5 right now.

I think 2019 be bigger than 2018.
I disagree with Last of uS II release date it will be released on 2019 as their fall big game.
Days Gone was delayed because they cannot fit it with a heavy hitter games like Spider man,  RDR 2, COD IIII.
I think this was the original plan.

God of War then Detroit then Spider man then Days Gone for Nov. but RDR 2 was delayed and they need to adjust it to a different date
Seem they are on the same open world genre so decided to delay it. 
2019 
GOT  Last of US and Death Stranding and dreams

2020 will be the games that will newly announced this year or the next.

I wish you're right, I don't want to wait that much!!! 



The_Liquid_Laser on 17 August 2018
NoCtiS_NoX said:

 By reaching "Nintendo levels" is just to say, that Sony now have more than 5 franchises that can be compared to the biggest franchises in terms of sales, nothing more, nothing less, but yeah, Nintendo is still number one.

Quoting colafitte. He said it better than me.

If you are only talking PS4 vs. Switch in this very brief moment of time then I agree.  But it won't stay this way for long.  But by the end of 2019 the next main Pokemon will have released, and MK8 Deluxe will have sold, conservatively, at least 15m copies.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

KazumaKiryu on 17 August 2018
HintHRO said:
And well deserved. Hard word like that should be rewarded. And besides the continous stream of high quality first party releases we also have all the third party releases. That's what makes PS4 a real gaming console.

So true. I share your thoughts.



Lawlight on 17 August 2018
zorg1000 said:
Lawlight said:

How many of those 3rd parties received any sort of marketing or were the equivalent of today’s big franchises?

Alot 

I don’t think so. Nintendo may have been to spend $50M on marketing Pokemon (without inflation) but a company like Square which was on the verge of collapse wouldn’t have been able to do that.



123Lucas on 17 August 2018

Sony has evolved. They're making many great first party games.



zorg1000 on 17 August 2018
Lawlight said:
zorg1000 said:

Alot 

I don’t think so. Nintendo may have been to spend $50M on marketing Pokemon (without inflation) but a company like Square which was on the verge of collapse wouldn’t have been able to do that.

Think whatever you want, 3rd party games on NES/SNES/GB had plenty of exposure in the late 80s-early 90s.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

NoCtiS_NoX on 17 August 2018
colafitte said:

I wish you're right, I don't want to wait that much!!! 

Yeah that's true if Last of us II is released on 2020 it's a long wait. ugh! Why do Sony announce games too early. 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

If you are only talking PS4 vs. Switch in this very brief moment of time then I agree.  But it won't stay this way for long.  But by the end of 2019 the next main Pokemon will have released, and MK8 Deluxe will have sold, conservatively, at least 15m copies.

But main Pokemon will be released  in 2nd half of 2019? MK8 cannot do 15M in 1 year how can Pokemon do it in less than a year? Because if you are expecting Pokemon to sell 15M in 3-5 months then that's some crazy prediction for you. 

BOTW at 10m-12M
MK8 15M
Mario odyssey 13M-14M
Pokemon let's GO 10M or less.
Smash might not even reach 10M by then yet but highly likely it will. so 10M-12M

God of war will be at 12-15M.
UC4 could be at 14M
HZD could be at 10M
Spider man 10-12M
Last of us could be at 10M aswell. ( I even lowballing Last of us with 8.5 at this stage.) 17M is sold thru customer so numbers could be higher with shipped numbers.
Last  of us II could be a front loaded game and could reach 10M in short time period. The audience for this are mature so they have the money to buy it.

so isn't that about the same?



DonFerrari on 17 August 2018
GOWTLOZ said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:


I'll address these points in reverse order.

4. You put "at Ninty Level" in the title of this thread.  This means you are comparing Sony first party to Nintendo first party.  They are not on the same level.  I am trying to show you what is "at Ninty level".  Perhaps you don't realize how big Ninty first party actually is?  All of the games you mentioned in your first post are what I would call "second tier".  Zelda and 3D Mario are also second tier.  If you want to compare those Sony games to Zelda and 3D Mario then that is fine.  But Nintendo has much bigger first party games than that like Pokemon, 2D Mario and Mario Kart.

3.  This is not Sony's best first party performance.  Gran Turismo 3 sold 15m.  When they actually get a PS4 first party game to 15m, then we can talk.  They aren't there yet.

1&2. A) I didn't mean to compare shipped with sold through.  In the rest of our discussion I will just stick with VGC numbers to compare likes with likes.  However even when the data is adjusted none of the points I've made are nullified.

1&2 b)  GTA V is not a different beast of a game.  It has sold 90m+ plus copies, because its on many platforms.  Minecraft has even sold 100m+ copies.  Do you think it could do that on one platform?  No way in hell!  A fair comparison is single platform to single platform, or even two platform totals to two platform totals.  Comparing sales on one platform to another game on 5+ platforms is not a fair comparison.

So lets compare two platform totals then.  (I know you realize that all of these numbers are going to be bigger, because they are the sum of two platforms.)

GTAV (PS3) + GTAV (PS4) = 20.3m + 18.2m = 38.5m
Pokemon Gold/Silver (GB) + Pokeom Heartgold/Soulsilver (DS) = 23.1m + 11.8m = 34.9m

Look, both of these games have sold in the 30m - 40m range on two platforms.  GTA V is even better.  Good for it!  But selling 30m - 40m on two platforms is very big deal, so I would put both of these games in the same top tier.  Do you know what game doesn't belong in this tier?  The Last of Us.

TLoU (PS3) + TLoU (PS4) = 6.3m + 6.3m = 12.6m  (using VGC numbers)

Wow, that is not even close to either Pokemon or GTA V.  TLoU is not "at Ninty level".  Sony knows this!  Sony doesn't even expect their first party games to be "at Ninty level".  This is why I am mentioning GTA V.  Sony expects games like GTA V to sell "at Ninty level".  GTA V is Sony's heaviest hitter, right?  When you compare GTA V on a single platform then you see it sells like a Pokemon or Mario Kart or 2D Mario game.  Those are Nintendo's heaviest hitters. 

Instead Sony first party is more like Nintendo second tier: Zelda, 3D Mario, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, etc....  If you are saying that Sony first party is like Nintendo's second tier, then I agree.  But Sony's top first party games are NOT at the same level as Nintendo's top first party games.  Sony first party is not really "at Ninty level".  Because when you actually compare likes to likes, then you realize that "Ninty level" is the same as "GTA level".  Gran Theft Auto: San Andreas sold 20.8m, another top tier game.  Gran Theft Auto can sell 20m+ on a single platform.  That's really impressive.  But Nintendo has had many games that have sold 20m+ on a single platform.  That is why GTA level is on the same as tier as "Ninty level".  Sony first party is not on this level.

1) GTA and Minecraft aren't the same thing. You could bet that games like Minecraft will always be a one hit wonder and none of its sequels will replicate that success because its based on creation.

GTA is an age old brand that has grown stronger and its certainly a far stronger brand in gaming right now than anything Nintendo will ever concieve at any particular point. GTA was the game that made PS3 outsell Xbox 360 for a month in the US while multiplatform which God of War 3 and TLOU couldn't do as exclusives, just due to a fucking $300 bundle near the release of PS4.

GTA is the staple brand of gaming, Pokemon has massively dropped in popularity on dedicated gaming devices. Everywhere I go people talk of GTA, both past and present games, while also buying every game. Pokemon is talked of more as an anime than a game series, and while plenty of people I know play Pokemon games, most of them use emulators and never would pay a cent for it. GTA is popular in every corner of the earth where gaming is a thing, and it constantly brings in new players. Pokemon is mostly popular among nostalgic people who watched the anime as a kid.

Also your comparison is flawed. HeartGold and Soulsilver are REMAKES of Gold and Silver released 11 years apart. GTA 5 on PS4 was an easy port job of the PS3 version. If anything your comparison shows the strength of GTA 5 as it sells more than two Pokemon games and their remakes, on just 2 of the 5 platforms its on. Speaking of platforms, GTA 5's sales on PS3 and PS4 would have been way greater if it was a PS exclusive, not the other way around. Pokemon games would sell like 4 to 5 million per platform if they came on 5 platforms, a few years ago, but now even that may be out of reach for the series.

3) TLOU sold 17 million. Best selling Sony game, and same situation as GTA 5. Uncharted 4 might be close to GT 3 already and God of War is selling faster as well.

4) I agree that Sony isn't on Nintendo's reach. Their games don't have the appeal of Ninty's and they mismanage old franchises and abandon them, so I don't see it changing. But I wouldn't say 2D Mario is as big as Pokemon, its probably 3rd tier now.

taus90 said:
I think Sony is beyond better than Nintendo when it comes to first party.. but the truth is nintendo has maintained and developed their age old ip's into a brand.. which sony has somehow neglected or failed to do. and brand sells
Even a well know exclusive IP could sell bonkers on a failing system People keep pointing out wii u and how first party game sold well. care to point out how many new IP's did those same number as MK8 or Smash. On the other hand MGS4 a well known exclusive sold 5 million copies by 2009 on PS3 and everybody knows where ps3 was in its early days.

So only if Sony had maintained a franchise like Nintendo since PS1 days we could have seen the same level of sale success. And to prove that point look at Crash remaster. Uncharted a gen old franchise, last mainline entry is probably above 10 million, God of war reboot fastest selling game in PS history! Gran turismo! Imagine if Sony had invested in its old IP's like Medival, Socom, Parappa the rapper, Patapon, Spyro, Crash, Getaway, Syphon filter, warhawk. instead they choose wrong IP's and poor marketing tactics which killed many of the great franchise.

So in short Nintendo is no where close in terms of delivering a brand new Ip as sony. And sony is no where near nintendo in terms of established IP, But Sony in this gen is close to nintendo in terms of making IP's into a brand.. and sony will bear the fruits with HZD2, GoW2, TLoU2.. but the real question is will sony be able to maintain level of quality like nintendo has, over longer period of time?, or run it into the ground by switching over to a different studio like halo, golden Abyss and LBP3

This is real. Sony's series are mostly story based and their is only so much story to be told from one character's perspective. The strength of Mario and Zelda is that they can keep telling the same stories time and again and don't get any flak for doing so. People don't even give a fuck towards the story in Pokemon. Sony's games will get hammered for having the slightest problems in their plot by both critics and gamers, as more is expected of them.

It doesn't help that Sony is shit at managing the few series that don't have stories. Gran Turismo should never have had such development issues which has massively reduced its popularity. Wipeout didn't get a new game on PS3, just a download only remaster. Socom got a multiplayer game on PS3 and right around release there was PS3 hack, followed by a Vita game that sold well for a Vita game but Sony being the pricks they are shut down the developer when it was their fault. God of War is the only long terms Sony series that has been nurtured with care, and Sony didn't even want one as Sony Santa Monica had to convince them of it. Sony's management are pricks when it comes to handling their IPs in a respectable manner. No that it matters, I don't think Sony will ever fully realise the importance of first party IPs till one of their home console fails as third parties abandon them, which might never happen.

MasonADC said:

Have we not seen the legs for Zelda and Splatoon? Both are constantly in the top 20, while splatoon has even reached number one in Japan some 30 weeks after launch. Mario Odyssey has already surpassed a million copies this year, I don't see how you think 15 million is the max it will reach. And besides, we have to remember that this all happened in 15 months of the switch life. Based off of what we have been seeing, Switch games have been more desirable than past iterations. It is not unlikely to think that something like Animal crossing will be the best selling version of it's series. And Smash? It would be weird to have smash typically be a bigger seller than zelda and Mario just for those two too outsell it now. Especially the Ultimate Smash game, and the biggest title by far this year. 

As for the sony's titles, how am I using wishful thinking, when you just implied that Uncharted 4 might have 15 million sold? The last update was 8.7 million right? How is it crazy that a Nintendo title won't have legs to reach 20 million when it sold 11 million in 8 months, but it is ok that Uncharted could have reached 15 million? If it takes by the end of the ps4 5th year to have 5 titles pasted 10 million, when the Switch will possibly have 5 titles pasted 10 million by the end of it's second year, it is quite easy to see why they aren't on the same level

Read the OP. Uncharted 4 sold 8.7 million in 7 months. Its 27 months since the game released. One holiday season and its still selling well. It should easily be at 14 million. Super Mario Odyssey will sell 20 million too, I'm sure of that. Amazing game, amazing reviews, amazing word of mouth and the Switch is selling amazing.

I very much prefer sony killing of the franchises or making 1 out, with new IPs entering and we seeing new things to play than keep releasing the same thing over and over.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."