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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NPD Analyst predicts SWITCH to be 2018 Best-Seller in the US

Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

Switch is different, it's at  this point it's selling exactly around the same as 3ds but with out a price drop, but it's has a much better lineup, who to say it won't lose momentum, it's already selling less this year in the US. Nintedo is expecting a weaker Q1 then 2017, AND in 2017 stock was a huge problem, if they had stock we would be looking at a huge decline in Q1.

As for the falling off the cliff 7 months ago, get over that you're are beating a dead horse, to fit your agenda with me. it's already been explained to many times.

No, Switch is selling obviously better than 3DS in same time period, and like you wrote whitout huge price drop, also Switch lineup until now wasnt strong and it whithout any big game compared to last year in same time period, and despite that Switch is selling similar to last year (so it keeed momentum). If you look at Switch lineup is actually quite impressive that Switch continue to selling very good despite not had any big game until now, but again, thats only one quarter, Nintendo always have strongest sales in second half of year espacily in FY Q3 (Oct-Dec) where they usualy have similar or even better sales than in other 3 quarters combined, and this FY Q3 look espacily strong for Switch with MarioParty+Pokemon+SmashBros. Switch will easily sell more in FY 2018. than it sell in FY 2017.

Your posts fit with your agenda that keep pushing with Switch, yours "falling off the cliff" post don't need explanation at all its very self explained post. :D

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

No, Switch is selling obviously better than 3DS in same time period, and like you wrote whitout huge price drop, also Switch lineup until now wasnt strong and it whithout any big game compared to last year in same time period, and despite that Switch is selling similar to last year (so it keeed momentum). If you look at Switch lineup is actually quite impressive that Switch continue to selling very good despite not had any big game until now, but again, thats only one quarter, Nintendo always have strongest sales in second half of year espacily in FY Q3 (Oct-Dec) where they usualy have similar or even better sales than in other 3 quarters combined, and this FY Q3 look espacily strong for Switch with MarioParty+Pokemon+SmashBros. Switch will easily sell more in FY 2018. than it sell in FY 2017.

Your posts fit with your agenda that keep pushing with Switch, yours "falling off the cliff" post don't need explanation at all its very self explained post. :D

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.

Talking about yours agenda, when we comparing it with 3DS sales than Switch has similar sales, but when we talk about NPD sales than Switch this year is for now has lower sales than last year!? :D

Also when you talk about 3DS sales, keep on mind that Switch had huge stock problems in its first year while 3DS didnt and that 3DS had huge price cut in order to start selling. Also it will be much more intresting to compare 3DS and Switch sales for full second year on market, 3DS sold 14m in second full year on market while Switch will sell 17m+ this FY in worst case.



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

No, Switch is selling obviously better than 3DS in same time period, and like you wrote whitout huge price drop, also Switch lineup until now wasnt strong and it whithout any big game compared to last year in same time period, and despite that Switch is selling similar to last year (so it keeed momentum). If you look at Switch lineup is actually quite impressive that Switch continue to selling very good despite not had any big game until now, but again, thats only one quarter, Nintendo always have strongest sales in second half of year espacily in FY Q3 (Oct-Dec) where they usualy have similar or even better sales than in other 3 quarters combined, and this FY Q3 look espacily strong for Switch with MarioParty+Pokemon+SmashBros. Switch will easily sell more in FY 2018. than it sell in FY 2017.

Your posts fit with your agenda that keep pushing with Switch, yours "falling off the cliff" post don't need explanation at all its very self explained post. :D

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.

Talking about yours agenda, when we comparing it with 3DS sales than Switch has similar sales, but when we talk about NPD sales than Switch this year is for now has lower sales than last year!? :D

Also when you talk about 3DS sales, keep on mind that Switch had huge stock problems in its first year while 3DS didnt and that 3DS had huge price cut in order to start selling. Also it will be much more intresting to compare 3DS and Switch sales for full second year on market, 3DS sold 14m in second full year on market while Switch will sell 17m+ this FY in worst case.

Also we can compare just hole first year for Switch and 3DS because Switch was totally sold out at launch while that wasnt case with 3DS, but offocurse that fit less with your agenda:

FY 2017. Switch - 15m

FY 2012. 3DS - 13.5m

And difference for this FY year can be only bigger.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 11 July 2018

NPD Year 2

3DS
160k
260k
225k
125k
115k

NSW
270k
280k
310k
170k
165k



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Miyamotoo said:
quickrick said:

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.

Talking about yours agenda, when we comparing it with 3DS sales than Switch has similar sales, but when we talk about NPD sales than Switch this year is for now has lower sales than last year!? :D

Also when you talk about 3DS sales, keep on mind that Switch had huge stock problems in its first year while 3DS didnt and that 3DS had huge price cut in order to start selling. Also it will be much more intresting to compare 3DS and Switch sales for full second year on market, 3DS sold 14m in second full year on market while Switch will sell 17m+ this FY in worst case.

Also we can compare just hole first year for Switch and 3DS because Switch was totally sold out at launch while that wasnt case with 3DS, but offocurse that fit less with your agenda:

FY 2017. Switch - 15m

FY 2012. 3DS - 13.5m

And difference for this FY year can be only bigger.

I'm talking about WW sales, which what matters when talking about total units sold.

Anyway you think 17M is worst case is your opinion, worst case is 13m, i expect it will be 14-15.



quickrick said:
Miyamotoo said:

No, Switch is selling obviously better than 3DS in same time period, and like you wrote whitout huge price drop, also Switch lineup until now wasnt strong and it whithout any big game compared to last year in same time period, and despite that Switch is selling similar to last year (so it keeed momentum). If you look at Switch lineup is actually quite impressive that Switch continue to selling very good despite not had any big game until now, but again, thats only one quarter, Nintendo always have strongest sales in second half of year espacily in FY Q3 (Oct-Dec) where they usualy have similar or even better sales than in other 3 quarters combined, and this FY Q3 look espacily strong for Switch with MarioParty+Pokemon+SmashBros. Switch will easily sell more in FY 2018. than it sell in FY 2017.

Your posts fit with your agenda that keep pushing with Switch, yours "falling off the cliff" post don't need explanation at all its very self explained post. :D

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.

Seriously, saying that it's selling like the 3DS is beyond ridiculous. You can put the PS4 up there too and then explain it will not outsell the Wii because it's selling like the 3DS in it's first year if you're serious.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.

Seriously, saying that it's selling like the 3DS is beyond ridiculous. You can put the PS4 up there too and then explain it will not outsell the Wii because it's selling like the 3DS in it's first year if you're serious.

Its probably best to compare on a region to region basis, shipments after 5 quarters.

3DS

Japan-5.85

Americas-5.99

Other-5.30

 

NSW

Japan-4.38

Americas-7.14

Other-6.27



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bofferbrauer2 said:
quickrick said:

What ever dude, i'm not gonna keep arguing with you, think what you want. as for 3ds vs switch sales

 Q4 17.13 3DS

Q4 17.79 switch,

basically selling at the same pace, with switch having a slight advantage.

Seriously, saying that it's selling like the 3DS is beyond ridiculous. You can put the PS4 up there too and then explain it will not outsell the Wii because it's selling like the 3DS in it's first year if you're serious.

PS4 in 13 months sold 18.5 sold through. switch after 15 months probably around 17.5 million.



quickrick said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Seriously, saying that it's selling like the 3DS is beyond ridiculous. You can put the PS4 up there too and then explain it will not outsell the Wii because it's selling like the 3DS in it's first year if you're serious.

PS4 in 13 months sold 18.5 sold through. switch after 15 months probably around 17.5 million.

And Switch after this holiday season will again be in front PS4 sales launch aligned, than PS4 with onother holiday season in front Switch and so on...so most accurate is to compare full FY year, for instance Switch FY 2017. and FY 2018. vs PS4 FY 2014. and FY 2015.

 

quickrick said: 
Miyamotoo said: 

Talking about yours agenda, when we comparing it with 3DS sales than Switch has similar sales, but when we talk about NPD sales than Switch this year is for now has lower sales than last year!? :D

Also when you talk about 3DS sales, keep on mind that Switch had huge stock problems in its first year while 3DS didnt and that 3DS had huge price cut in order to start selling. Also it will be much more intresting to compare 3DS and Switch sales for full second year on market, 3DS sold 14m in second full year on market while Switch will sell 17m+ this FY in worst case.

Also we can compare just hole first year for Switch and 3DS because Switch was totally sold out at launch while that wasnt case with 3DS, but offocurse that fit less with your agenda:

FY 2017. Switch - 15m

FY 2012. 3DS - 13.5m

And difference for this FY year can be only bigger.

I'm talking about WW sales, which what matters when talking about total units sold.

Anyway you think 17M is worst case is your opinion, worst case is 13mi expect it will be 14-15.

I also talking about WW sales.

Of Course it is for you, you also didn't thought that Switch will keep selling so great last year and you also thought that this year Switch "sales will fail over cliff". ;)



zorg1000 said:
NPD Year 2

3DS
160k
260k
225k
125k
115k

NSW
270k
280k
310k
170k
165k

Interesting - do you have a source for these? I'd be interested to see how 3DS did in the rest of its second year, so I can think about Switch NPD for the remainder of this year.