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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan sales (Week 26) Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - June 25 - July 1, 2018

nero said:
Mnementh said:

Well, baseline is not a scientific term, it is something to gauge momentum and predict the coming weeks. Basically it is: what would the console sell wihtout sales, holidays and new games. But that is obviously problematic, because without these the console would stop selling altogether. Your graph is actually helpful. You see the monstrous Monster Hunter peak for PS4, the Golden week peak for both consoles and some other peaks that probably match with some game release if we would look for it. The other weeks are more 'normal' weeks.

If you look for some way to make a formula which calculates it always the same way, I may suggest the following: You already calculated the average. We can easily say that all above average is extraordinary and created by holidays, sales or game releases. So take the below average weeks and make an average for them. Or even better - replace the average in both cases with the median, if your tool supports it. Median is more stable against a few extreme values (like the Monster Hunter peak). So the median of all weeks below the overall median. But that's just my personal suggestion.

Thanks for your insight. Just did some calculation and these values might be the baseline of both consoles:

SW: 38126

PS4: 22627

If that would be correct, then I'll update the chart

Well, as I said correct cannot be said, as baseline is nothing really fixed, but more or less guesswork. But people are saying for some time something around 40K baseline for Switch and 20K for PS4, so it looks like in a good ballpark.



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Farsala said:
outlawauron said:

Thanks for the source. He's a pretty trustworthy guy, but I do wish he'd post numbers. From his later conversation where he gave some Ys sales, it looks like we're talking about peanuts though. Happy Switch version had a good FW in West. Hopefully it's well received and it's able to pass up LT sales too.

NISA has brought such an interesting paradigm to niche JRPGs. Almost everything they've brought has done very well on Switch in the West while its JP release completely flops.

Yeah... Its only ahead of PS4 and PSV individually and only launch aligned in the west, of which both the PS4 and PSV versions launched at the exact same time so it would be no surprise that the audience was divided. Its definitely not blowing sales out of the water, but it is a good indicator for falcom on a potential audience. I imagine western sales are still quite poor compared to Japan sales for PS4, so it is unlikely that they... switch their main platform. But in the west Switch might be the bigger audience, if sales hold strong.

Lastly I am pretty sure NIS or NISA would have nothing to do with Ys VIII in Japan. Unless that was just a side comment.

NISA handled the Switch port. Which makes the patch schedule unsurprising.



 
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Excellent week for the Switch, and even more software is coming. My guess is that maybe the console can maintain an average of 50-55k until later in August.



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TheWPCTraveler said:
Farsala said:

Yeah... Its only ahead of PS4 and PSV individually and only launch aligned in the west, of which both the PS4 and PSV versions launched at the exact same time so it would be no surprise that the audience was divided. Its definitely not blowing sales out of the water, but it is a good indicator for falcom on a potential audience. I imagine western sales are still quite poor compared to Japan sales for PS4, so it is unlikely that they... switch their main platform. But in the west Switch might be the bigger audience, if sales hold strong.

Lastly I am pretty sure NIS or NISA would have nothing to do with Ys VIII in Japan. Unless that was just a side comment.

NISA handled the Switch port. Which makes the patch schedule unsurprising.

I am well aware NISA handled publishing in the west, but I said Japan, which Falcom handled on their own.



Farsala said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

NISA handled the Switch port. Which makes the patch schedule unsurprising.

I am well aware NISA handled publishing in the west, but I said Japan, which Falcom handled on their own.

Now, Nihon Falcom published the title in Japan, but they did not do the port themselves. NIS did - and considering how it turned out, I bet that NIS America handled the Switch port, like the PC port.



 
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Here is the week 26 update in terms of the two big consoles in Japan's path to be able to reach the commonly stated (in these sales threads) estimates for 2018 sales (2 mil for PS4, 4 mil for Switch) .

  TWS GD YTD AWN (Change)
PS4 18,811 -19,298 989,863 38,851 (+742)
Switch 50,762 -54,186 1,217,140 107,033 (+2085)

TWS - This week's sales
GD - Goal differential, the difference between the average week needed from last week compared to this week's sales
YTD - Units sold in 2018 so far including this week's sales
AWN - Average weekly sales needed to reach the estimate for the console.

Slight bump for Switch, slight drop for PS4. Both systems are each selling at around 50% AWN so they are both performing about the same when it comes to their goal in this week's sales. The Switch's AWN is increasing at a much faster rate since it's much farther away from its goal but it has a much higher chance of catching up and surpassing its goal during the holidays.



TheWPCTraveler said:
Farsala said:

I am well aware NISA handled publishing in the west, but I said Japan, which Falcom handled on their own.

Now, Nihon Falcom published the title in Japan, but they did not do the port themselves. NIS did - and considering how it turned out, I bet that NIS America handled the Switch port, like the PC port.

NIS did handle the Switch port.  Not sure which part of NIS.  So yeah, for those keeping score, that's 3 times that NIS has messed up with Ys VIII



TheWPCTraveler said:
Farsala said:

I am well aware NISA handled publishing in the west, but I said Japan, which Falcom handled on their own.

Now, Nihon Falcom published the title in Japan, but they did not do the port themselves. NIS did - and considering how it turned out, I bet that NIS America handled the Switch port, like the PC port.

Not following. So NIS developed the Switch version entirely including the Japan version? I see now it does say NIS on this site.

Edit: and published too.

 

New 07. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana 6,431 New Switch NIS 


Farsala said:
TheWPCTraveler said:

Now, Nihon Falcom published the title in Japan, but they did not do the port themselves. NIS did - and considering how it turned out, I bet that NIS America handled the Switch port, like the PC port.

Not following. So NIS developed the Switch version entirely including the Japan version? I see now it does say NIS on this site.

Edit: and published too.

 

New 07. Ys VIII: Lacrimosa of Dana 6,431 New Switch NIS 

The 4gamer listing (https://www.4gamer.net/games/406/G040672/) says that Nihon Falcom developed the game and that NIS is publishing it. That's confusing.

As far as I remember, one of the reasons behind the fact that NIS America got the contract for localizing Ys VIII is that the porting of the game would not have to be done by Nihon Falcom (hence the botched PC and Switch ports), so I'm not sure what's behind this.



 
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