Biggerboat1 said:
VGPolyglot said:
How did you get the 11 billion figure?
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It rhymes with 7...
EDIT , you beat me to it!
In reality though, the pool is much smaller than 7 billion. A massive chunk of the planet's population struggle to feed themselves, never mind stump up $400 for a games console... You then have a tonne of people who missed the boat on gaming : 50yo +, you're not going to convert a meaningful fraction of them to PS4 (Wii Sports maybe...)
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This wants me to make some calculations...
Of those 7B inhabitants, around 1B have both access and financial possibility to buy a console. Dividing it into households (since most households will only buy one version of a console per Generation - though the upgraded versions skews that number around) and we get a total maximum of around 250-300M customers, twice that number if everybody bought a base console and then upgraded to Pro/X.
Since many households will only buy one console total, we could settle the total potential market for consoles per gen at around 300M
Handhelds cater more to persons than to households. As a result their theoretical potential market is bigger, but in practice outside of kids most customers are persons who are moving a lot without being the one to drive (mass transportation like buses and trains, but also taxi/Grab/Uber/Lyft and persons who fly often), which tends to make their total market smaller than the console market, especially in more rural regions. Add to this that smartphones are eating on their share and you can see why outside of Nintendo nobody seems to take that gamble anymore.
Total potential market for handhelds is hard to gauge, but I guess around 100-150M
Switch, being a hybrid console, fuses both markets together into one. But PS4 and XBO already have a big chunk of those 300M potential customers and still selling great, so over a third of those sales are already made. However, Switch is basically the successor of the 3DS (and in a way of the Vita, since it's conceptually closer to that and Sony didn't announce a successor yet), giving it additionally most of the handheld market. This would give the Switch a potential of 200-250M customers.
Of course, it's impossible to cater to everybody, so those numbers are pretty much impossible to reach. However, with such a great potential, it's not impossible to sell something close to PS2 or DS numbers, though not necessary probable. Time will tell how well it will do. The PS4, if it doesn't drop too fast, can get close to that number, too, but probably will fall short by 20-30M. Xbox ONE is the weakest of the three, even though it has recovered a bit with the ONE X, it's not selling well enough on a worldwide stage, catering mostly to it's home market. 60M may be doable, but that will be the maximum reachable for the console.