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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 16 June 2018

I've posted on other chart threads that after 80m is a bit more difficult to find buyers because there's some level of saturation, however it's not even close to total lack of potential customers. Not only many families do buy two home consoles of the same brand but many gamers buy the same brand more than once in one generation for many reasons. Besides, there are more than 80m people out there ready to pick up a PS4, specially with a price cut.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


chakkra said:
Amnesia said:

There are less and less people who don't have a PS4... And this not really a console that family wish to get twice.

Sometimes it looks like people here believe that the number of human on earth is infinite.

275m consoles were sold during 7th gen and so far only 150m have been sold in 8th gen (even counting the Switch), that leaves us with 125m people who haven't migrated to the current generation.

And yes, I know a big chunk of the Wii base was composed of casuals, but we also have to take into account the potential new buyers (teens who were too young to have a console back then and people from the emerging markets).

80 + 37 + 14 + 17 = 148

But it is ok I see your point.



Biggerboat1 said:
VGPolyglot said:

How did you get the 11 billion figure?

It rhymes with 7...

 

EDIT , you beat me to it!

 

In reality though, the pool is much smaller than 7 billion. A massive chunk of the planet's population struggle to feed themselves, never mind stump up $400 for a games console... You then have a tonne of people who missed the boat on gaming : 50yo +, you're not going to convert a meaningful fraction of them to PS4 (Wii Sports maybe...)

This wants me to make some calculations...

Of those 7B inhabitants, around 1B have both access and financial possibility to buy a console. Dividing it into households (since most households will only buy one version of a console per Generation - though the upgraded versions skews that number around) and we get a total maximum of around 250-300M customers, twice that number if everybody bought a base console and then upgraded to Pro/X.

Since many households will only buy one console total, we could settle the total potential market for consoles per gen at around 300M

Handhelds cater more to persons than to households. As a result their theoretical potential market is bigger, but in practice outside of kids most customers are persons who are moving a lot without being the one to drive (mass transportation like buses and trains, but also taxi/Grab/Uber/Lyft and persons who fly often), which tends to make their total market smaller than the console market, especially in more rural regions. Add to this that smartphones are eating on their share and you can see why outside of Nintendo nobody seems to take that gamble anymore.

Total potential market for handhelds is hard to gauge, but I guess around 100-150M

Switch, being a hybrid console, fuses both markets together into one. But PS4 and XBO already have a big chunk of those 300M potential customers and still selling great, so over a third of those sales are already made. However, Switch is basically the successor of the 3DS (and in a way of the Vita, since it's conceptually closer to that and Sony didn't announce a successor yet), giving it additionally most of the handheld market. This would give the Switch a potential of 200-250M customers.

Of course, it's impossible to cater to everybody, so those numbers are pretty much impossible to reach. However, with such a great potential, it's not impossible to sell something close to PS2 or DS numbers, though not necessary probable. Time will tell how well it will do. The PS4, if it doesn't drop too fast, can get close to that number, too, but probably will fall short by 20-30M. Xbox ONE is the weakest of the three, even though it has recovered a bit with the ONE X, it's not selling well enough on a worldwide stage, catering mostly to it's home market. 60M may be doable, but that will be the maximum reachable for the console.



huum, yeah... with this trend, looks like PS4 is gonna be overtracked by a good million, considering that it hasn't surpassed 80million in June, and with the VGC basis it should surpass 81 million in less than 4 weeks.

Btw, am i the only one surprised Sony hasn't annunced that milestone yet? PS4 should be seriusly super close to 80 million.



Ryng_Tolu said:
huum, yeah... with this trend, looks like PS4 is gonna be overtracked by a good million, considering that it hasn't surpassed 80million in June, and with the VGC basis it should surpass 81 million in less than 4 weeks.

Btw, am i the only one surprised Sony hasn't annunced that milestone yet? PS4 should be seriusly super close to 80 million.

Same here, though it's possible they passed it already, just not in time for E3 where they possibly wanted to announce it.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
huum, yeah... with this trend, looks like PS4 is gonna be overtracked by a good million, considering that it hasn't surpassed 80million in June, and with the VGC basis it should surpass 81 million in less than 4 weeks.

Btw, am i the only one surprised Sony hasn't annunced that milestone yet? PS4 should be seriusly super close to 80 million.

Same here, though it's possible they passed it already, just not in time for E3 where they possibly wanted to announce it.

also for once since forever ago, its slowed in selling 10m more units, than the last 10m before it.

From 60m->70m only took 175 days,...... its apparent that from 70m->80m is probably like 190days+.
So its slowed abit in sales.

However I still think they where hopeing they could announce 80m at E3 like you do.



Sony should release cheap top loading PS4 this holiday for 249



...not much time to post anymore, used to be awesome on here really good fond memories from VGchartz...

PSN: Skeeuk - XBL: SkeeUK - PC: Skeeuk

really miss the VGCHARTZ of 2008 - 2013...

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
huum, yeah... with this trend, looks like PS4 is gonna be overtracked by a good million, considering that it hasn't surpassed 80million in June, and with the VGC basis it should surpass 81 million in less than 4 weeks.

Btw, am i the only one surprised Sony hasn't annunced that milestone yet? PS4 should be seriusly super close to 80 million.

Same here, though it's possible they passed it already, just not in time for E3 where they possibly wanted to announce it.

They've announced other milestones at random times before. It's probably just about to pass 80 million any day now. But maybe they want to wait for 85 or something



Skeeuk said:
Sony should release cheap top loading PS4 this holiday for 249

199$

A cheap Super Slim PS4, would be awesome.



Ps4 in cruise control